German Chancellor Angela Merkel is again visiting Turkey in the last few months. She is going to meet Prime Minister Davutoglu and President Erdogan. Berlin doesn’t hide that Ankara is a key factor in overcoming the migration crisis which has been caused by the inflow of refugees from the Middle East. The German Chancellor hopes for a stabilization of her own rating, which is decreasing with Turkey as well.
According to recent public opinion polls, more than 80 percent of German citizens think that the government has lost control over the situation with migrants. The level of approval of the CDU fell to 34 percent, according to the Insa Research Center’s data. Experts who are aware of the internal party situation in Germany believe that if the rating of the ruling party falls lower than 30 percent, the party will have to “reject” its leader. Such a situation has already taken place, when Merkel got rid of Helmut Kohl in the party leadership. Today she might share his fate.
Today conservative media are discussing the issue of whether the speeches of Angela Merkel, who is losing popularity, are effective from the point of view of the CDU election campaign ahead of the regional elections in three federal states in March. Of course, the urgent internal political problems of Chancellor could make her visit Turkey again, but this is not the only reason. Moreover, we shouldn’t forget that every visit by Merkel to Ankara is connected with heavy criticism of her by the German opposition parties, primarily the Greens and the Lefts.
Merkel stated at a joint conference with the Turkish Premier that the support from the EU (3 billion euros) which would be allocated to Turkey for stemming the inflow of Syrian refugees to Europe was going to be allocated as soon as possible without bureaucratic obstacles. The Chancellor didn’t hide that the money must be transferred to Turkey as soon as possible to start real activity, the results of which would be significant for Germany. Moreover, Merkel made it clear that 3 billion was not the final sum, and further support to Turkey would be discussed after the initial sum is spent.
Suddenly, in Ankara, Merkel criticized Russian bombings in the city of Aleppo, which intensified the flow of refugees toward the Turkish border. Therefore, on the one hand, the German Chancellor expressed solidarity with Turkey, which had very difficult relations with Russia. On the other hand, intensification of the flow of refugees from Syria to Turkey means a need for new subsidies to Ankara from the EU and creates the preconditions for a drastic growth in the number of Middle Eastern migrants in the European Union, if the Turkish partners don’t do anything about the situation for any reasons. Berlin will do its best to prevent such a scenario, considering the internal vulnerability of the current German government as well.
It seems the crucial factor in the German-Turkish talks is the financial issue. By the way, this explains the behavior of the Turkish authorities, who are taking their time to open the border to a hundred thousand refugees from Aleppo. However, they don’t rule out that the border may be opened. The fate of people who are saving their lives by leaving Syria will be determined by the talks between Merkel and the Ankara authorities. The fact that the Russian bombings of Aleppo are a reason for Merkel’s visit to Ankara is confirmed indirectly. A few days ago, Merkel met Ahmet Davutoglu within the Syrian conference in London; earlier, they met at the EU-Turkey summit and at the G20 summit in Antalya. Finally, Angela Merkel headed a delegation which visited Istanbul in October 2015. What could the reason for another meeting be, but for the changing situation in Syria?
Apparently, Erdogan will also touch on the Kurdish issue which is very sensitive for Ankara. Recently the Turkish President accused the West of double standards and actual support for the militants of PKK, which was thought to be a terrorist organization by the EU, the US and Turkey. “We are witnessing that weapons which are used by the terrorists of the PKK today are produced in the West. They have arms made in various Western countries. Thus, terrorists are armed by those forces which state about a struggle against terrorist organizations,” Erdogan said. It seems it is a good moment for Ankara to impose its conditions on its European partners.
