Clashes continue in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan is determined to win, and the Armenian side seems to be more pessimistic. Local events are developing in favor of Azerbaijan, The National Interest writes in the article Is 2020 Azerbaijan and Armenia’s Favored Year for War?
For this reason, it may be preferable for Armenia to fight a war when it has the least chance of being stuck in a military stalemate with Azerbaijan, rather than fighting at an uncertain future point when Azerbaijan is more likely to win. Therefore, Armenia may want to push Azerbaijan into a confrontation in which no one could claim a decisive military victory, hoping for third-party intervention.
Military history is replete with numerous examples where warring parties’ prospect of victory affected the timing of conflict. For instance, before the Russo-Japanese War in 1905, the Japanese war planners thought that they had a fifty-fifty chance of victory when they attacked, believing their chances of winning will be decreasing as time passes.
Before the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Egypt’s strategic assessment was based on a military stalemate in which it would have a bargaining chance to reclaim the Sinai Peninsula and push the Israeli to withdraw, instead of a decisive military victory.
Also, if the Franco-Prussian war in 1870-71 had broken out a year later, the French would not have been defeated so quickly. The French Army’s modernization had not yet been completed at that time.
We could have been reading the First World War in history books as the Russo-German War of 1914 or the Russo-Austrian-Hungarian War of 1914. But it turned into a general war between the major powers because of mutual pessimism about defeat in a postponed war. Immediately after the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian crown prince, Germany, fearing growing Russian military power, thought it was the best moment to fight. France wanted to fight because Germany would fight against Russia at the same time. Russia relied on France’s commitment to fighting against Germany.
Regarding the conflict on Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian strategic assessment is not based on an optimistic assessment about victory, but pessimism about losing a potential war in the future. Although the clashes take place between Azerbaijan and Armenia, regional powers have strong incentives to involve themselves in the conflict, increasing the risk of a regional war across the South Caucasus.
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Yesterday evening, the presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh during the phone call. According to the Kremlin press service, the Russian side expressed deep concern over the ongoing hostilities, as well as the increasingly large-scale involvement of terrorists from the Middle East in clashes. Vladimir Putin informed about the contacts with the leadership of Azerbaijan and Armenia and the steps being taken to achieve an armistice as soon as possible and de-escalate the crisis. The parties agreed to continue to carry out coordination between the foreign policy and defense departments of Russia and Turkey, as well as the special services of the two countries.
