Two weeks after the announcement of the results of the early parliamentary elections, political parties and blocs did not begin to form the composition of the National Assembly. And about. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is preparing to repel possible provocations from the nationalist wing of the Armenian opposition, which could destabilize the situation in the republic.
Armenian nationalists, represented by the "Armenia" and "I have the honor" blocs, are in no hurry to recognize Pashinyan's victory in the elections. The leaders of the blocs, ex-presidents of the republic Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sargsyan, do not see themselves among the deputies of parliamentary factions. Most likely, the leaders of the Karabakh clan will continue to fight Pashinyan outside of parliament. They are accustomed to seeing themselves as leaders of the executive branch, not deputies, so they will seek the removal of the prime minister or try to block his work in such a way that Armenia, with the elected parliament, will de facto find itself in a situation of anarchy.
Kocharyan does not have a comprehensive plan, but there is another one aimed at preventing Pashinyan from carrying out a legitimate re-election procedure. In this case, the legislative initiative of Pashinyan's Civil Contract party will be limited, and the prime minister himself will not be able to negotiate either with the opposition or with that part of the Armenian society that voted against him. The synchronicity of the approaches of the "Armenia" and "I have the honor" blocs will force Pashinyan to make political decisions without discussing them in parliament, as a result of which the prime minister will have to look for counterarguments for those who accuse him of usurping power. Now it is important for Kocharian to knock down the "popular" image of Pashinyan, since all his political initiatives, including criminal prosecutions, were carried out by the prime minister on behalf of the people.
The front line between the former and the current political elite runs through the pages of legislative acts, in which Kocharian's team scrupulously searches for flaws. There has never been a case in the history of Armenia when literally the entire elected parliamentary opposition was in no hurry to take a mandate. Nationalists do not hide the fact that they are studying legislation to identify "white spots". They are not going to work with Pashinyan within the walls of parliament. The tactic of dragging out the political process was tested by nationalists when they tried to slow down the negotiation process on the Karabakh settlement.
Kocharyan cannot declare the elections illegitimate, since they were recognized as valid, and the violations revealed during the voting cannot significantly affect the results of the popular will. The outcome of the vote is unacceptable for nationalists, since it secures the status of a defeated war party to the Karabakh separatists. Ideally, Kocharian needs another early election, initiated by the public. For this, it is necessary that Pashinyan be in constant tension, make mistakes, provoking the public to show him a vote of no confidence.
The task is practically impossible, given that Pashinyan does not undertake to resolve issues in which he does not understand anything, preferring to delegate them to his comrades-in-arms. Pashinyan reserves the right to carry out political cleansing, which Kocharyan fears.
