The official return of former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili to the mainstream politics this spring did not become a sensation. Numerous political scientists and experts are convinced that since his abdication of the premiership, Ivanishvili has not quitted the governing of the country and remained the grey eminence of the Georgian politics. However, now the positions of the party he created are noticeably inferior to those that the Georgian Dream (GM) had in 2012. In the upcoming presidential elections on Sunday, the GM party supports Salome Zurabishvili being sure that she will win.
Though he left politics, Ivanishvili retained his authority. Overcoming the crisis of the ruling party would be impossible without a significant political figure. Perhaps it was the crisis in the ranks of the ruling party that forced Ivanishvili to get out of the shadows. However, according to the opinion polls, about 20% of the population will not participate in the elections, because they do not see the new leaders, and another 15% have not decided who to vote for.
What can be the consequences of Ivanishvili’s activism in politics? He is first and foremost a person of business, therefore his ‘second coming’ may mean the implementation of the new economic projects. In the coming years, an increase in hydrocarbon supplies is expected across the Transcaucasus. The agreed status of the Caspian Sea has opened doors for the sale of Turkmen gas and oil, which will flow through a future underwater pipeline. This will strengthen the oil and gas sector of Azerbaijan, which can significantly expand Georgia’s transit capacity. Meanwhile, any increase in the gas transit to Turkey is considered a successful solution for Georgia. An increase in the transit of Azerbaijani gas by 2020 as a part of the Southern Gas Corridor project will allow Tbilisi to receive the significant volumes of gas as a payment for the transit of fuel.
Perhaps Ivanishvili will try to find a common language with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, if he succeeds in taking the post of Prime Minister of Armenia on legitimate grounds in the snap parliamentary elections. The former Armenian administration did not consider Ivanishvili as a business partner, fearing to annoy its closest ally Russia. However, the rapprochement with Ivanishvili can play into the hands of Pashinyan - the Georgian billionaire is familiar to the European political establishment, while Pashinyan is still being examined in Europe. Armenia, which is now embraced by the reform ideas, may well benefit from the experience of Georgia. Finally, Ivanishvili can offer Pashinyan to use the joint potential for the implementation of joint projects in the field of transport and logistics, the use of Black Sea ports, which is vital for Armenia in the context of the chronic transport isolation.
As for Russia, taking advantage of the political tension between the West and Moscow, Ivanishvili can offer a phased discharge of relations. Most likely, Salome Zurabishvili will be responsible for this. Her diplomatic experience will help to establish a real dialogue between Moscow and Tbilisi. Ivanishvili believes that the current situation in the South Caucasus is not the most favorable for Russia, so Moscow is interested in a rapprochement with Tbilisi, given the uncertainty in the Russian-Armenian relations.
