Another attempt by the Armenian political elite to start a process of recognition of the separatist regime in Nagorno-Karabakh was prevented before gaining momentum. However, this time, Yerevan went farther than it had done earlier, positively assessing a draft, but at the same time leaving it up in the air and tying its future with further developments both on the frontline and the international arena.
It is known that the draft will not be considered at the early session of the Armenian parliament on May 10. Although, in the morning of May 5 the Armenian government stated exactly the opposite. Nobody actually knows for sure why the discussion of the draft was taken off the agenda of the National Assembly. Nevertheless, a big role could have been played by Moscow’s critical position on the initiative, which was indirectly expressed by the Press Secretary for the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov.
Does it mean anything to the negotiating process? First of all, it should be noted that the official negotiations are already ‘dead,’ as Armenia via its president, demanded additional ‘security guarantees’ before it resumes the work on the peaceful settlement. Of course it does not rule out intensive backstage talks, and the increased since April diplomatic activity of Moscow, confirms this. It seems that Yerevan has hardly strengthened its positions by the latest steps taken, becoming ‘a bit pregnant’ by recognizing the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. On the contrary, the draft was not discussed. That means that Yerevan has no diplomatic or military and political mean for such a step.
Probably the Armenian side believes that the draft which is up in the air can become an additional restricting factor for Azerbaijan on the frontline and enable Yerevan to slowdown the negotiations and preserve the status quo. However, such an attempt to substitute real negotiations for further conservation of the conflict will hardly be approved by the international society. It is well known that the co-chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group and the German chairmanship in the OSCE intend to reach a full-scale peace between the sides; and mediators have a full consensus on unacceptability of the status quo after the fighting in April. Moreover, we can imagine a hypothetical (and quite real) situation when another fire-fight on the frontline (and they still break up regularly) turns into a larger military conflict. According to the logic of the Armenian authorities, in this case, it would be the right moment to recognize independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, this step will start a large-scale war between the already agitated sides of the confrontation. And this war is not in Russian interests in the South Caucasus, and would lead to serious consequences for the foreign policy.
If Armenia does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh even in such hypothetical scenario, the current activities by the government toward recognition of independence of the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic are going to be considered by the society as a bluff and despicable manipulation of national interests. And it would lead to serious domestic political consequences.
Therefore, the current situation, in which Yerevan has trapped itself in, provides temporarily headache relief for the Armenian government. It was too risky and could serious image losses for the Armenian government if it rejected the draft bill against the background of the fighting in April when more than 100 soldiers were killed. At the same time, in a mid-term prospective, when the issue of recognizing the so-called NKR may be on the table again, for example, due to another escalation on the frontline, the Armenian government will have a very limited space for political maneuvers.
