The Special Commission for Constitutional Reform (SCCR) has published a preliminary version of the draft of chapters 1-7 of the new Constitution. Preparation of the draft of the constitutional amendments is nearing completion, it will be submitted to the President already on August 1. The final conclusion of the Venice Commission will be ready in October. In the case of the adoption of the document, the form of governance in Armenia will change from a presidential-parliamentary to a parliamentary republic. The President will be elected for 7 years instead of the current 5, but not by direct vote, but by an electoral vote, formed from members of the National Assembly (NA) and representatives of local governments. The domestic and foreign policy of the state will be developed and implemented by the highest executive body – the government. The powers of the National Assembly will also significantly expand, it will supervise all executive authorities. Of the 131 parliamentary seats, at least 101 will remain (the number of deputies could reach 120-130), and the electoral system will be made into a 100-percent proportional system.
According to a member of the SCCR, the former Minister of Justice Gevorg Danielyan, the new Constitution provides for the expansion of the powers of the National Assembly to control the executive authorities, and in addition, the status of the opposition forces will significantly expand – not only are they guaranteed to take responsible positions in the parliamentary bodies, but they can also affect the control and personnel policy.
The opposition will get the seat of one of the deputy speakers.
However, the question is not in the expansion of the powers of the opposition, since it will not affect the balance of power in the government system, but how the authority will be formed and whether society can control it.
The ideology of change suggests that the Speaker becomes the real head of state, who, of course, holds a post in the ruling party.
"Serzh Sargsyan fully revealed his plans: the project of the Constitution tells us that he plans to combine the posts of Speaker and leader of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA)," the head of the parliamentary faction of the radical opposition party 'Armenian National Congress' (ANC) Levon Zurabyan believes.
According to some analysts, it is not so important that Sargsyan could be appointed as Speaker, it is enough for him to be the head of the Republican Party, because, on the initiative of the authorities, the changes are aimed at ensuring the permanent rule of the RPA.
The changes in the Constitution indicate the empowerment of the Speaker, and most importantly – his de facto invulnerability.
The new Constitution contains a number of items envisaging the removal from power of the president and prime minister. The Prime Minister becomes the weakest figure in the authority – with the consent of 1/5 of deputies parliament can start a procedure to declare a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister or any of the ministers. Further, with the presence of more than 50% of votes of the deputies, the National Assembly can remove the Prime Minister from power, the same applies to any minister.
The constitutional reforms offer the holding of parliamentary elections in two rounds. If in the first round none of the forces is able to form a simple majority, then a second round is held, by the results of which two parties or the union, which receive the most votes, are going to the National Assembly. To date, there have been no examples of such a thing in the world. Meanwhile, this innovation may lead to the fact that the NA will always have an absolute majority, or two political forces at most. The draft excludes such thing as a coalition government. In addition, the use of this scheme may lead to the destruction of a number of political forces undesirable to the authorities.
Unlike Georgia, where a consensus has been reached between the political forces on the issue of the transition from a presidential to a parliamentary form of governance, there is no such agreement in Armenia, the opposition is against the reforms, which naturally reflects the position of a large segment of Armenian society.
With the exception of the ruling RPA and ARF 'Dashnaktsutyun', in the party program of which a clear preference for a parliamentary republic is presented, none of the leading political forces have yet spoken in favor of the adoption of new amendments. However, 'Prosperous Armenia', 'Country of Law' and 'Heritage' are involved in discussions, but until now none of these forces have spoken for the adoption of the constitutional amendments. The ANC still holds the strictest position, its members insist on a version of the reproduction of the authority of the current president.
Statements by the ruling elite and members of the SCCR that the amendments will contribute to more efficient public administration, eliminate the imbalance of power in favor of the President existing today, ensuring wider powers of opposition, are not satisfing for the opposition, many experts and citizens. Statements by some members of the SCCR, that the constitutional draft system of security and defense is much stronger and more effective than the one that operates under the current Constitution, are also causing suspicion.
Now only a few people want to remember, but at the beginning of the 1990's there were long and difficult discussions in parliament about the need for a transition from a parliamentary to a presidential form of government, which in the conditions of war or a possible resumption of hostilities will provide greater efficiency and adequacy in decision-making. If we analyze the statements about providing a higher level of democracy in the case of a transition to a parliamentary form of government, it turns out that countries with a presidential form, including the US and France, are not quite full-fledged in terms of democratic development.
The authorities did not give an intelligible explanation about the advantages of a parliamentary republic compared to a presidential one, so the statement of SCCR member Vardan Pogosyan, that Armenia is ready for a transition to a parliamentary form of government, sounds strange. But is society ready? Meanwhile, the co-rapporteurs of the PACE and the Venice Commission have repeatedly pointed out to the Armenian authorities the fact that in Armenian society there is no consensus on the change of governance. Observers fear that the adoption of the project, unacceptable to the majority of the population, will cause a split in society and destabilize the situation in Armenia.
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