The question of the future of the European Union is dominating on the European political area. Britain, whose strategic importance is difficult to overestimate for the EU, decided withdraw from the union and now it is on the way of growing political turbulence zone. The The situation is aggravated by the fact that none of the British politicians are willing to take responsibility for the decision after referendum. Prime Minister David Cameron decided to resign. To the surprise of both his supporters and opponents, his arch political opponent, former Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, one of the masterminds of the Brexit campaign, refused to take the vacant position of the head of the government. Against this background, the positions of Scotland and Gibraltar with the requirement of the withdrawal from the United Kingdom in favor of continued membership in the EU are becoming more obvious. The European Union is in a hurry trying to work out a common strategy for future relations with Britain. The fact that European leaders have considered a variety of scenarios, suggests, in particular, changeable position of Chancellor Angela Merkel in recent days.
On June 25th Merkel supported a conciliatory position and stated that she would not like to put pressure on Britons and demand their immediate withdrawal from most of the EU, remaining the British political elite an opportunity to reconsider the decision to withdraw. Several days later, the tone of the head of the German government significantly tightened and she made it clear that Europe's not going give the United Kingdom any special opportunity. "Those who leave the family cannot expected that their duties will disappear, and privileges will remain,’’ Merkel said, noting that prior to the official submission by Great Britain the withdrawal from the EU won’t be discussed. The Britain’s decision to leave the EU, as Chancellor stated, accepted and no turning back. European Commission President Juncker also sternly warned European officials not to enter into negotiations with representatives of the United Kingdom in any case. The European Union wants to demonstrate to the population of their countries on the example of the UK, how detrimental can be withdrawal from the Union. Official application of the United Kingdom to withdraw from the EU will give an additional impetus to the centrifugal forces within the UK.
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker
Meanwhile, Brexit seriously upset the balance of power within the European Union. On the one hand, the UK’s withdrawal enhances the leading role of Germany in the alliance, but at the same time it enhances the traditional fears of "German hegemony." The "German issue" is a favorite eurosceptics’ topic, but because Berlin will have to act with maximum caution not to confirm the fears of its European allies.
Marine Le Pen
The problem also lies in the fact that the ‘European idea’ is experiencing in crisis, not only in the UK that traditionally stood itself, but also in Germany where right party Alternative für Deutschland is gaining popularity, and France where the leader of the "National Front" Marine Le Pen is a favorite of the presidential race in 2017 (28% of the vote for Le Pen, against 21% for Sarkozy and 14% for the unpopular incumbent President Francois Hollande), the recent survey by Le Monde reports. Eurosceptics across Europe consider that Brexit is a victory, and the main problems that led to the rise of right-wing parties in Europe, has not yet been resolved. First of all, the migration crisis. It is impossible to destroy the foundation where right-wing populists make their political capital.
Berlin will have to negotiate with Ankara to solve the issue of migration. Meanwhile, recognizing Turkey as guilty in the "Armenian genocide" in the parliamentary resolution of the Bundestag, Germany was guided mostly by emotions and the desire to lay siege to Turkish President, and as a result of reckless deepened the crisis in bilateral relations.
EU requirements on changing the Turkish law on terrorism, which Ankara harshly rejected. After the recent bloody terrorist attack in Istanbul has no serious prospects: today in the fight against terrorism will be a nut twist harder. In addition, after the final restoration of its relations with Russia and Israel Turkey will have much wider area for diplomatic maneuver in relations with Germany and the EU.
The negotiating position of Brussels and Berlin have deteriorated markedly, which opens up additional opportunities for both Turkish and Russian diplomacy. As noted in an interview the director of the Research Institute for International and Security Affairs of the think tank Stiftung für Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Barbara Lippert, Brexit was a heavy blow to the "soft power" and the EU's political status and it will take much time to recover.
In Europe, the lack of clarity and unity what lessons should be learned from the referendum in the UK
