Turkmenistan is ready to cooperate with Russia and Kazakhstan on the implementation of the construction of the frozen Caspian gas pipeline project. This was stated by President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov at the opening ceremony of the East-West gas pipeline. Experts believe that with these words the Turkmen leader was outlining a central theme of the future negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who plans to visit Turkmenistan in 2016.
"Today three states have prospects for the construction of the Caspian pipeline, based on the presence of a real resource and infrastructure base, and now it depends on political will. In this regard, I want to state that Turkmenistan is ready for interested and constructive cooperation with Kazakhstan and Russia. Also I would like to note that Turkmenistan aims to take concrete and practical steps for the implementation of earlier agreements," Berdimuhamedov said at the opening ceremony of the East-West gas pipeline.
The idea of the construction of the Caspian gas pipeline appeared in 2007. It was assumed that the gas would be transported from the eastern Dauletabad gas field and Kazakhstan to Russia. In May 2007 the presidents of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia signed an intergovernmental agreement on construction of a gas pipeline. But in 2009 the project was already frozen after the price of gas in Europe fell sharply, and it became unprofitable for Russia to buy gas from Turkmenistan and resell it to Europe. The 'Central Asia - Center' pipeline, through which gas was supplied from Turkmenistan to Russia, inexplicably exploded. Turkmen officials have blamed Gazprom, claiming that the explosion was caused by a closed valve on the company's territory, which led to a rise in pressure in the pipe. Deliveries to Russia from Turkmenistan stopped. Ashgabat's losses from gas sales accounted for $1 billion per month.
Turkmenistan has increased its gas supplies to China and Iran. But it was not enough to fill the treasury. The money from the sale of gas to China was spent on repaying the Chinese loan. Iran is using a barter system. The project in the Afghan direction – TAPI – won't be implemented soon. The fate of the Trans-Caspian project, which was planned to supply gas to Europe, is also not clear. Apparently, President Berdimuhamedov has decided to revive the Caspian gas pipeline for this purpose. He expressed confidence that the project is in the interests of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia, and will contribute to the growth of their economies and attract major long-term investment. The Turkmen leader said that the Caspian gas pipeline will have a beneficial effect on the whole complex of issues related to the further development of multifaceted partnership in the Caspian states. According to the Turkmen president, the project "creates in the Caspian region, which is of strategic importance, a strong base for the export of Turkmen energy resources to the world markets in at least four areas, namely in the northern, western, southern and eastern."
"The main reserves of Turkmen natural gas are located in the east of the country, while for Turkmenistan it is important to supply gas not only to China, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, but also to Europe. Hence the idea of building a gas pipeline that would connect the eastern deposits with the western ones. At the same time, gas from the east of the country is needed not only for export but also for its injection into oil reservoirs, the bulk of which are located in the Caspian region. That's how, as well as with the purpose of special solutions, one can increase the production of Turkmen oil from a great depth by 30% (its amount is much less than gas). When there are no gas or solutions one has to resort to conservation/re-activation of oil wells with the loss of up to 50% of their oil. The Turkmen people sell oil tankers to the Persian Gulf countries through Iran, replenishing the state treasury with a larger amount than from the sale of gas," a senior scientist of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the RAS, Shokhrat Kadyrov, told Vestnik Kavkaza.
Another aspect of Berdimuhamedov's statement on the revival of the Caspian pipeline is linked "with attempts by the Turkmen President to outline a central theme of future negotiations with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, who plans to visit Turkmenistan in 2016. This was voiced by senator Valentina Matviyenko during her visit to Ashgabat to celebrate the 20th anniversary of Turkmenistan's neutrality. "Russia must give the green light to cooperation on supplying its own and Turkmen gas to Iran, since it is against the construction of the Turkmen pipe under the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, fearing for the ecology of the Caspian Sea more than the Black Sea," Kadyrov noted.
Experts perceive the statement of the Turkmen President as politically motivated. Berdimuhamedov decided to reverse the misunderstanding with Russia, which arose during the meeting with Vladimir Putin in Tehran. He expressed Astana's alleged dissatisfaction about missile launches from the Caspian Sea to Syria. "One can say that the row in Turkmen-Russian and Turkmen-Kazakh relations, which began with the Turkmen Foreign Ministry's note of protest to Kazakhstan, is close to completion. The fundamental reason for this is that Turkmenistan currently has no opportunity to replace the already existing in post-Soviet Central Asia package of Russia-China [where China is a key buyer of energy, and Russia is a key guarantor of security] with some other package, such as US-Japan. Therefore, the visit of Kerry to Turkmenistan, which, in general, hasn't led to any major shifts, was followed by the Arkadag's visit to Beijing, and now Turkmenistan is beginning to verbalize with Russia the issues of cooperation in terms of energy, and, in the long term, in terms of border security," the director of the Analytical Center of MGIMO, Doctor of Political Science, Andrey Kazantsev, told Vestnik Kavkaza.
Now the question is whether Russia needs such cooperation. Gazprom refused to buy Turkmen gas long time ago, as it costs too much now, and is no longer suitable for re-export as it was before the construction of the Chinese gas pipeline to Turkmenistan. " I personally do not really understand why Russia needs the Caspian gas pipeline in such circumstances, because there is unclaimed capacity in the existing gas transmission system. And Russia's possibilities of making infrastructure investments are very limited due to the economic crisis," the expert noted. Kazantsev believes that the prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and Turkmenistan are quite small, since the foundation of the Turkmen economy is gas, and it has already been "staked out" by the Chinese. "And the prospects for cooperation in the field of security at the Afghan border are significant. I think that Russia cannot afford that in the case of the attack by extremists, including those related with Daesh [radical organization banned in Russia] and al-Qaeda from the Afghan direction, its military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were simply bypassed from the Turkmen side. And it offers direct access to Western Kazakhstan and Russia's Volga region and the North Caucasus," Kazantsev noted. Therefore, the expert believes that if Turkmenistan will ask for military help, Russia will probably have to provide it.
Shohrat Kadyrov also believes that security cooperation is theoretically possible. "But neither Russia nor Turkmenistan are interested in such kind of interaction practically. Russia does not need new theaters of military confrontation along the perimeter of its borders. And Turkmenistan fears that military assistance, especially related to the deployment of troops, could cost it, if not sovereignty, then a change of regime," Kadyrov concluded.
