Following US President Trump’s inauguration, there was uncertainty regarding the administration’s position on Iran, especially as far as the P5+1 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was concerned. But Trump’s strong campaign-trail statements about ripping up the “worst deal ever negotiated” have receded to the background. What currently remains at the forefront is no doubt acute dissatisfaction with the nuclear deal, but rather than ripping it up, the administration has stated that it wants to review the deal in the context of overall U.S. policy toward Iran.
According to an article "Is Tillerson Signaling a Change in U.S. Iran Policy?", published by The National Interest. What has also moved to the forefront over the past three months is greater attention to Iran’s provocative regional behavior. In late January, the administration stated clearly—following an Iranian ballistic missile test that can reach Western Europe with a nuclear warhead—that it “was putting Iran on notice” and would no longer be willing to turn a blind eye to Iran’s provocations, behavior that the Obama administration had often been willing to gloss over in the post-deal period (mid-2015 to late 2016) in order not to upset Iran, which would risk upsetting the deal.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s April 19 statement on Iran has provided important insight into this question. The day before Tillerson released his statement, and in accordance with the administration’s obligation to submit every three months a letter to Congress tracking Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA, the administration stated that Iran was complying with the deal. But Trump insisted that the letter to Congress also note the administration’s grave concern with Iran’s continued support for terrorism. Also, the president then instructed Tillerson to release a statement the next day clarifying the administration’s overall position on Iran.
Tillerson began his statement by noting that the Trump administration is conducting across the entire government a review of its Iran policy. He went on to stress that what he would like to address “today” is “Iran’s alarming and ongoing provocations that export terror and violence, destabilizing more than one country at a time.” As a leading state sponsor of terrorism, Tillerson noted that Iran is intensifying regional conflicts and undermining U.S. interests in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon. Additionally, the country continues to support attacks against Israel. He then immediately made the connection to North Korea, saying that if it continued “unchecked,” Iran had the potential to travel the same path as North Korea, and take the world with it. Therefore there was a need to address all aspects of Iran’s behavior.
Opponents of the Trump administration’s approach have depicted these statements as conflicting, jumbled and confused. In particular, they point to the fact that the administration admitted that Iran was complying with the nuclear deal, and the next day released a statement highly critical of its behavior. However, while there have no doubt been many twists and turns in the administration’s approach to other aspects of foreign policy, the emerging approach to the Iran nuclear challenge so far is not confused, although it is very different from the previous administration.
The Trump administration has changed course on Iran, and when taking a clear-eyed look at Tillerson’s statement, the different pieces do form a coherent approach. The Obama administration had insisted that it only meant to tackle the nuclear realm; the logic was that if Iran was aggressive in any case, it was preferable for it to be aggressive without nuclear weapons, rather than with them. And if the deal had indeed ensured Iran would remain nonnuclear, there would be logic to this claim. The problem is that the deal does not stop Iran, and the Trump administration recognizes the implications. Moreover, parallel developments regarding North Korea—a de facto nuclear state—are driving home the understanding that once a proliferator crosses the nuclear threshold, there is not much that can be done to reverse the situation. If Iran gets stronger in the coming years, and is able to build up its nuclear infrastructure significantly from year eleven of the deal, then it will be much better positioned to cross that threshold, and it will be virtually unstoppable.
There is no easy path to reversing the negative trends that have been set in motion with the JCPOA, but correctly diagnosing the problem is a first step, and working to restore U.S. deterrence vis-à-vis Iran is also important for changing course. The conclusions of the ninety-day review on Iran policy will be the next stage for assessing the path forward.
