Udo Steinbach: "Mosul offensive is the end for ISIS"

Yesterday evening, the Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the course of the operation of Iraq's government forces to liberate Mosul from the ISIS terrorist group with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and an hour before - with the Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi. Putin wished success to the Iraqi army and its allies in this task, as well as supported the efforts of the Iraqi authorities to eradicate the outbreak of international terrorism, ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. During the discussion of the joint Russian-Iraqi forces on the antiterrorist track they gave a high evaluation of the Information Center in Baghdad, which coordinates the military of Russia, Iraq, Iran and Syria.

A German expert on the Middle East region of the Humboldt-Viadrina School of Governance in Berlin, Professor Udo Steinbach, commented an interview with DLF the assault on the last ISIS stronghold in Iraq - Mosul, launched by the Iraqi army together with Kurdish Peshmerga, as well as Sunni militias trained in Turkey.

According to Steinbach, these events is the beginning of the end for ISIS. "In general, the destruction of ISIS has begun a long time ago. It seemed that it would happen more quickly, but then the Iraqis took a break, and it was clever of them. After they took control of Fallujah relatively easily, it was clear that Mosul will be a tough proposition," the expert notes. During the pause the quality of the Iraqi army and coordination between the various parties involved in the war have been improved.

"It seems that the attackers were well prepared and now we will see if the main problem is solved. The main problem is not the number of those involved in the attack on Mosul, but the heterogeneity of groups. The key question is whether  these numerous parties can be coordinated," Steinbach believes.

"All of them have different interests. We have already seen the recent tensions in relations between Ankara and Baghdad. The Turks are carrying out activities on Iraqi territory, which Baghdad does not like. Is not completely clear what they are doing there. But it is no longer discussed in the last days. While earlier there were proposals to bring the issue to the agenda of the UN Security Council. I believe that the US said both sides not to make their military and political contradictions out before such an important operation," the expert said.

According to the analyst, it is not just about a victory of the Iraqi Army, but of other war players, involved in this attack, as well. The question is, how stubbornly the terrorists will fight and what defensive measures they have taken. "But it is possible that they are demoralized after all the defeats on Iraqi territory in the past, and will give in relatively easy. That is, they will disappear as quickly as they appeared in Iraq in 2014 - the secret of their victories was their unexpected appearance, not military training. It is an open question it would be a long war or a short one. As I have already noted, the main problem is not the victory itself, but how they will divide the 'bear's skin' in Mosul in the end," Steinbach warns.

The expert also does not exclude the political component of the military operation against ISIS in Mosul. "The result of President Obama's policy in the ISIS area, that is, in Syria and Iraq, is not positive, and the demonstration of power can meet the interests of the US President. In addition, probably, the Americans and their advisers play a decisive role in the war. Iraqis themselves would not be able to carry out such a huge strategic step as the offensive of Mosul. I think that the Americans, the French and other military advisers – including the Germans – have carried out quite successful work in the preparation of this storm," the German professor says.

The expert believes that after the capture of Mosul, the issue of Iraq will be permanently closed for ISIS, and the terrorists will concentrate on how to maintain their positions in Syria. "ISIS will no longer pose a threat for Iraq. But the restoration of the statehood of the country, the relations between the government in Baghdad and the Kurds, between the Shia and the Sunni, as well as Iran's considerable influence on Baghdad and the massive corruption, which makes impossible any political formation, will be a very serious problem for Iraq. The Prime Minister Allawi should devote himself to the solution of these problems. Maybe victory over the external enemy will give him the opportunity to conduct a stronger internal policy," Steinbach believes.

According to the expert, there is still a very long way to go for Iraq: "Everyone knows the problems which have arisen in Iraq following the US intervention. We know that not much has changed since then. The last prime minister, Mr. Maliki, was a complete failure, who aggravated the contradictions between the various groups in Iraq even more. But let's look at things optimistically. At some point, we must begin to destroy such a monster as ISIS to start solving the country's internal problems, realizing full political responsibility."