“A new wave of migration will appear in the post-election period”

Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Arutyun Mesropyan, the management expert, told Vestnik Kavkaza about his views on the Armenian economy in the post-election period, prospects of power changing, and possible changes in internal political processes.

-          How will Armenian economy develop in the post-election period?

-          The authorities of Armenia will have to define how the republic's economy will look in 5-10 years, and develop an economic course, according to this. Today, the economy is not developing. We can only speak about a growth and a drop, while any normal economic program should strive for providing quality, rather than quantity. Foreign investments won’t come to an economy which relies on power of monopolists and oligarchs jointed with the authorities. Even inflation is impossible in such an economic model.

After presidential elections Armenia will see a traditional growth of inflation. Powerful influence of political processes on price forming in the republic is connected with monopolization of the market. The countries with economic models which are similar to Armenian one cannot experience inflation conditioned by market processes only. A bright example is absence of a correlation between sugar price fluctuations at international markets and in Armenia. The current scheme of inflation calculation should be reconsidered in Armenia.

-          By the way, the post-election period is said to be marked by a new wave of capital outflow in Armenia…

-          It is notable that that capital outflow from Armenia improved last year. Today the annual volume of private transfers into Armenia surpasses $2 billion – these are interest-free investments into economy. However, it flows out more than flows in. There are several reasons for this. The fact that Armenia imports more than exports explains the difference between capital outflow and capital inflow. I think these tendencies will only improve in the post-election period.

-          The leader of the protest movement which was formed after the presidential elections, Raffi Ovannisyan, stated about his intention to fight for a reconsideration of the results. What are prospects of the current protest movement?

-          It is self-evident that Armenian people don’t want to see party activists among them. Considering the general character of Ovanisyan’s statements, he is perceived separately from the party aspect – not as a leader of the opposition party Heritage, but as a man from common people. Today everything depends on the fact whether the situation will pass the point of no return or not, according to Ovanisyan’s statements. If his ideas begin to be implemented, we will register a start of serious changes in the management system of Armenia. For determination of this point of no return there is a simple and reliable way. It is determined by a team which will be formed by a leader of a protest movement. Professional skills of certain members of this team will define results of the movement. If people who took key positions since 1991, who got used to work in an ineffective system are involved in his team, it will mean absence of prospects for the movement. Till Ovanisyan’s team is not composed, it is early to estimate prospects of recent protest processes.

-          What are prospects of “Revolution of Greetings” by Ovannisyan?

-          I can see two interesting features in the current protest movement, which haven’t been used before. Firstly, it is a low level of aggression or even its absence. We haven’t seen it since 1996 when people headed by the officially lost candidate – Vazgen Manukyan – attacked the parliament. The second feature is that in the post-election period Ovannisyan doesn’t overshadow Armenian regions. It is an interesting step, considering the net decentralized models of the protest movement are more effective and viable. Centralized structures are vulnerable. The low level of aggression creates a problem for the authorities as they miss an opportunity to use repressions. The authorities have no reason for aggression in return.

-          The West supported Serge Sargsyan who is thought to be pro-Russian and turned away from Ovannisyan. Do you think it is logical?

-          It doesn’t mean there is no behind-the-scenes struggle. Armenia is surrounded by many painful points of humanity: the Middle East, Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Israel. If Armenia was an insignificant factor in the geopolitics, the USA, Russia, the EU, and China would hardly act in Armenia directly or indirectly. Armenia takes a rather important geographic and strategic space. It would be ridiculous to think that there is no foreign influence on Armenian elections. The question is whether this influence is important for development of the post-election situation.

-          Officially Ovannisyan was supported by 40% of voters which means significant indignation of citizens. What are the reasons for it?

-          The Armenian society expresses indignation since 1991. It is caused by a drop of justice level, ruining of a bond between the authorities and the society. The first burst of the dissatisfaction took place in 1996 after the presidential elections. The fact that all presidential elections are ended by social dissatisfaction means that the society is dissatisfied with the administrating system of Armenia from the independence day. The society and the power have no feedback. It leads to destabilization and self-destruction of the management system. However, the socio-economic aspect is not the only component of social dissatisfaction. I am sure we will see a new wave of migration in the post-election period, and all candidates will be guilty of this. They performed a show, and some people believed them, but in the end they will see only disappointment.