By Vestnik Kavkaza
In April, the presidents of Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus will discuss the prospect of Ukraine joining the Customs Union. It was stated by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich upon his return from Moscow. Vladimir Putin and Yanukovich discussed a format of cooperation between Kiev and the Customs Union (CU). They agreed to continue working.
Commenting on the Russian-Ukrainian summit, Russian political scientist Sergey Mikheyev noted that the talks were rather difficult and took a lot of time: “It was even expected that Yanukovich would stay for the next day, but very late at night he left to Kiev. Rumors that the meeting took place because Putin asked Yanukovich to come to discuss the Timoshenko issue proved unfounded. It would be funny, by the way. As if they have nothing to discuss. The fact of negotiations means that we should solve problems and issues which we have between each other. Of course, they discussed gas prices, Ukraine’s possible participation in the CU, the problem of gas transporting system. According to preliminary statements by two presidents, unfortunately, it seems there was no breakthrough on these issues. But let’s see.”
“According to indirect signs, there was no real breakthrough, but I think the progress is obvious,” the general director of the Political Information Center Alexei Mukhin confirms Mikheyev’s words. “It is also confirmed by the concern of Western European partners of Ukraine. The EU acted symptomatically ahead of the meeting. Moreover, Yanukovich’s behavior was typical after the meeting. It resembles an episode from the well-known Soviet movie “Ivan Vasilievich Changes Profession”: “I was seduced by Tsarina, but I didn’t give up.” I think he was really “seduced by Tsarina” because 5% of the GDP for Ukraine per year is the result which Vladimir Putin actually offered Viktor Yanukovich as a real economic benefit. Moreover, Ukraine which is bargaining for beneficial joining the CU seems to receive some guarantees that this topic will be discussed. The EU actually presented an ultimatum – whether Ukraine joins the free trade zone with the European Union or it doesn’t. There’s no third variant – either the Customs Union or the free trade zone.”
“Continuation of the process is important for both sides,” the head of the Political Research Center “Penta” Vladimir Fesenko is sure. “For Yanukovich this visit was a kind of charter diplomacy. He doesn’t get used to this format, it’s not his style, but now he has to act like this and bargain simultaneously with Brussels and Moscow. The essence of the Ukrainian foreign policy is in bargaining either with Moscow or Brussels. They are a bit blackmailing Europe with the CU and are trying to convince Russia in necessity of concessions – “or we would have to stay at the European development direction for a long time.”
Continuation of the Ukrainian-Russian game and some significant results can appear only after the end of the European game of Ukraine. The key period is June-October. When it is clear for Moscow and Kiev that an agreement with the EU won’t be signed, the game will be different. That is why this meeting was intermediate. Apparently Yanukovich went to Moscow to speak about gas and appointing a date of his official visit to Russia. These are significant topics for Yanukovich. However, Putin would like to discuss the CU only. At the moment no important and final agreements are possible on this issue, the negotiations will continue. The key events will take place in the European theater of diplomatic struggle – what Kiev will have at May-June deadline when Ukraine will be estimated whether it is ready to sign an agreement with the EU or not. Ukraine won’t fulfill all responsibilities to the EU. The European Union doesn’t present an ultimatum on the CU. Some European politicians are concerned with a possibility of choosing the Russian direction by Ukraine, joining the CU, but it is not an urgent theme. There is a clear list of internal political duties. They won’t be fulfilled completely. When the problem of future European integration is solved, the Russian-Ukrainian talks will intensify. We should expect significant decisions no sooner than it is autumn or even the end of the year.”
The director of Kiev Center of Political Studies and Conflictology Mikhail Pogrebinsky doesn’t agree with his colleague: “The problem of Ukrainian participation in the CU is urgent for Europeans. Prevention of Ukraine from a step toward Russia is more important for Europe than anything else. Ukraine is not a comfortable member of the CU. Like the UK which messes the EU about, Ukraine would be a headache for the CU. Any movement by Ukraine toward the CU is a political success for Russia in the struggle for Ukraine against the EU.
The best variant is the following: Europe rejects signing an associative agreement with Ukraine. Ukraine says: “We are disappointed, but we will still fulfill the political requirements of the associative agreement as we are interested in the new election code, in independent justice system, in human rights and so on – we need this.” As for the free trade zone, it is alright that we don’t have it yet. Regarding the Customs Union, it is obvious we cannot join it. But the negotiations have been lasting for 8 years, and many treaties have been signed. Perhaps it would be possible to agree on a road map for 10-15 years, which will lead to a full membership of Ukraine in the CU. And at the moment there is a political process which demonstrates that we are Europeans, but economically we are solving our problems through cooperation with the CU. I think it would be the best solution for Russia, Europe, and Ukraine.”
