Yuri Kramar, Kiev. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
See Part 1 South Stream as a means of gas war – 1
Why did Europe change its position from previous threats of sanctions against Russia, including gas pipeline sanctions?
Administrations of certain European countries and the European Commission in general are beginning to understand that the EU will face serious troubles in the sphere of energy supply security. The optimistic statements by the Ukrainian authorities which are controlled by Washington are worthless.
The project of joint reconstruction and management of the Ukrainian GTS with the participation of Ukraine, the EU and Russia was rejected by Moscow long ago: “You can modernize it, but we won’t do it – and fill it with gas by yourself.” Russia doesn’t want to be a minority partner with no rights in the trade of its own product.
At the same time, Kiev is not able to pay for Russian gas in the context of the political and economic crisis. Its current debt without punitive sanctions is $3.5 billion. Moscow has launched prepayment for Naftagaz and it means $1.6 for just one month since June. Regarding the actual bankruptcy of Ukrainian finances, there is no sense in waiting for the prepayment. A new “gas war” will be started, which will result in “turning off the tap” and troubles for European consumers.
Moreover, such a scenario will be rather smooth. It will be much worse if, as a result of the presidential elections on May 25th, a new civil conflict begins in Ukraine. The main candidates are Pyotr Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, and they won’t admit defeat easily, especially in a situation where the motto “a rifle brings power” is widespread in Ukraine.
Considering the context, Russian gas supplies to Europe could stop for an indefinite period. It will be a big problem in winter. However, they are beginning to take preventive measures. American shale gas won’t be imported by Europe in significant amounts sooner than 2020. So the only alternative is Nord Stream and South Stream along the beds of the Baltic and Black Seas.
Despite the fact that the politicians in Kiev hope for Western support for the Ukrainian regime, which is directed against Moscow, the support is being replaced by sober pragmatism in Europe. That’s why the Europeans have changed their strict position on construction of South Stream.
