Who are Russia's friends?

Who are Russia's friends?


Yuri Glushkov, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

A new gas war between Ukraine and Russia will come soon. It won’t wait for New Year's Eve and could start this autumn. Difficulties with gas supplies will be an unpleasant revelation for the EU, which has pushed Kiev into the association with it. The EU countries, especially those who are dependent on Russian gas supplies through Ukraine, could become the main victims of the confrontation.

Kiev’s threats to stop Russian gas transit, which were voiced at the Minsk meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, resembled populist hysteria, i.e. they are futureless. However, a statement by the Ukrainian Premier Yatsenyuk after the Minsk talks that Russia is going to stop gas supplies to Europe itself seems to be even less logical.

Russia has no intention of confronting the EU on such a vulnerable topic as gas. But Ukraine doesn’t want to take payments for transit due to unsettled price relations with Gazprom, and this could lead to shutting off the gas supply valve on the border.

Soon talks on gas will take place between Russia, the EU and Ukraine. Moscow has developed suggestions on gas prices for Ukraine, so it won’t freeze in the upcoming winter. And the packet definitely includes a demand to the EU for reconsideration of its policy directed at blocking realization of the Southern Stream Gas Project.

As a result of unprecedented pressure on Bulgaria by the EU and the USA, the project was shut down in the country. Moreover, Europe insists on covering the transport route with the Energy Charter and the Third Energy Packet, which require differentiation between a gas owner and a pipeline owner. Under this condition Gazprom appears in a very difficult situation, as it actually sponsors the pipeline and owns energy resources.

In this negative context various “interpreters” and “well-wishers” oppose Russia against its neighbors, as if try to benefit from its problems. The topic of Caspian gas appears again as an alternative to Russian gas on the European market.

In reality there is no alternative for Russian gas in Europe. All other projected routes of gas supplies can only complement the EU energy basket, but they cannot create a new scheme which can replace Russian gas supplies. Europe won’t survive the upcoming winter without Russian gas, as well as it cannot survive the next winter or the winter in five years when TANAP will begin its operation and TAP which will transport gas to Italy.

These projects of the Southern Corridor are often called alternatives to Russia's South Stream. In fact, the projects have nothing in common.

Azerbaijani gas from the Shakhdeniz field will flow to Europe after 2018. However, its volume (10-15 billion cubic meters annually) cannot compare with the capacity of the South Stream – 63 billion cubic meters. The capacity will enable it to cease dependence on the Ukrainian gas transport system and bring assurance to European consumers that gas supplies will be stable. Eastern Europe remembers well the cold winter of 2009 when disputes between Moscow and Kiev led to failures in gas supplies.

Coming to the European gas market is a crucial question for Azerbaijan. However, Baku makes decisions while considering the interests of its Russian partners. An indicator of such an attitude could be the choice of TAP instead of Nabucco, which required Baumgarten as a final destination last year. This huge gas storage in Austria should receive Russian gas from the South Stream. Taking a risk, Baku consciously avoided doubling supplies, even though the chances of getting political support for Nabucco from the EU were much greater. If it didn’t happen, Europe would bravely show the Nabucco flag to Russia, convincing Moscow that the EU didn’t need the South Stream.

The tandem of Turkey and Azerbaijan is working effectively for Russian interests. We shouldn’t forget that the underwater part of the South Stream will pass through the Turkish economic zone, as Ukraine didn’t let Russia build the pipeline on its territory. Ankara develops relations with Russia dynamically and stably; it is not involved in sanction affairs. It helps Moscow to overcome the difficulties which appear in relations with the West. Business in Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan is stimulated to develop projects in the sphere of the food industry. Azerbaijani companies are actively working in Russia, creating new jobs.

Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Lavrov listed the allies of Russia in the world yesterday. His list included members of the CSTO, Eurasian integration partners of Russia, members of the SCO, and BRICS. In reality Russia has many more friends. The Ukrainian crisis has revealed who the true friends are and who seems to be a friend. We should make the right conclusions…

 

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