On January 21-22, 2011 the next round of international talks was held. In the negotiations took part 5+1 world powers (the US, Russia, Great Britain, France, China and Germany) and Iran.
These talks had some peculiarities. First off all they were carried out in Istanbul, which is a success of Iranian foreign policy. Political isolation of the country strengthens. However, it was Turkey that agreed to store Iranian low-enriched uranium in its territory in 2010.
Secondly, Iran tried to sow discord within the international mediators. For this purpose the Iranian representative in IAEA Asgar Soltanie invited his colleagues from Russia, China and EU to visit atomic power stations in Natanza and Arak. All of the invited withdrew from possibility of going in Iran, as it wouldn't bring any results.
What is more, 4 days before the talks were started, there was a phone conversation between Dmitry Medvedev and Mahmud Ahmadinejad. The presidents discussed the importance of mutual cooperation between Tehran and Moscow first of all in the sphere of energy and transport.
A week before the talks the Iranian embassy in Russia carried out a huge information campaign on promoting the idea of peaceful content of the Iranian nuclear programme. Iran has done a lot for preparing to the talks in Istanbul. However, the effectiveness was rather low. The main reason is that no one in the world trust Iran and its nuclear programme. Moreover, there is no economic justification for such a wide-scale nuclear activity in Iran. Iran protracts negotiation and takes too hard position. That is why international society cannot believe it.
That is why international isolation of Iran grows. It makes Iranian authorities search for support among regional countries. The highest attention is paid for Afghanistan, Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Is Iran's activity a threat for Russia's interest in these regions? Lets consider Iran's relations with the countries of the South Caucasus.
Relations with Armenia
Today Armenian-Iranian relations develop quite successfully. In the end of 2008 Iran began exporting gas to Armenia. In its turn Armenia provides Iran with electrical power. Before 2008 Armenia used to import gas only from Russia through Georgia.
Between the countries there is one highway and too more are being built. Iran and Armenia signed an agreement on construction of a railroad. However, in 2009 goods turnover between Iran and Armenia reduced by 35%. The volume of exporting of Armenia to Iran didn't surpass $17 million.
Iran played positive role in settling Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 1992. During the war campaign in Karabakh Azerbaijani population in Iran brought pressure on the Iranian authorities, especially when Azerbaijan took casualties. However, Armenian community in Iran was strong enough so that Tehran left its bounds opened for Armenian party during the blockade.
Today Iran and Armenia cooperate in the sphere of education, culture, science and high technologies.
Relations with Azerbaijan
Renaissance of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations began in 1997. Iranian authorities provided balanced foreign policy in the South Caucasus, paying attention to the spheres of energy and transport. In 2002 the president of Azerbaijan Geidar Aliyev came to Iran for reviving negotiations on the status of the Caspian Sea. Meanwhile, a set of documents on transport, economic, culture and sport cooperation was signed.
Notwithstanding positive development of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations, there are negative factors influencing them. First is that Tehran continues closely cooperating with Yerevan. Second is that rights of a big Azerbaijani community are restricted in Iran. Then, Azerbaijan cooperates with the main rivals of Iran, the US and Israel. In 2007 Azerbaijan accepted sanctions against Iran and restricted export of oil to Iran. Ambiguous status of the Caspian Sea prevents usage of its resources and can lead to a conflict. At last Iran and Azerbaijan are competitors, as they are both oil and gas exporters.
Relations with Georgia
The agreement on abolishment of visa regime was signed on November 3, 2010 in Tbilisi. A visa free stay for Georgian citizens in Iran and Iranian citizens in Georgia lasts 45 days. Citizens of both countries can use transit crossing points. For the prolongation of a stay a person should be issued a visa or a special permission. International flights from Tbilisi to Tehran are carried out every Tuesday and Saturday.
As cooperation with Georgia is strengthening, Russian-Iranian relations become cold. In fact Iran took Georgian side in the situation involving Abkhazian and South Ossetia. However, economic turnover is still very small between Iran and Georgia. The US try to prevent development of such cooperation.
To sum up, even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union Iran didn't manage to expand its influence in the South Caucasus and get the status of regional power, as Russia and Turkey.
Vladimir Evseev, the head of the centre of social and political research.
