The modernization of the CIS countries coincides with a new escalation of conflicts in the Arab world, which may spread to Europe and the territory of the former Soviet Union. Political elites should attentively follow the events which are taking place in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen. It seems the world is seeing a time of social revolutions, as it did at the beginning of the 20th century.
Who are the participants in the protest demonstrations, which have led in one country to political regime change and could do the same in Egypt? They are young and middle class people. They are well-educated people who use the Internet and receive a good salary, but at some point became social outsiders or victims of corruption and ineffective state management. They are the first to protest. After them are coming marauders and anti-social people.
The second group is "Islamic radicals." Often they are all lumped into one category, but behind faith against an "anti-social regime" religious fanatics are hidden.
Of course there are those who want the Islamization of Egypt and Tunisia. We shouldn't underestimate their role, as well as the role played by the social factor. In this context, both factors - religious and social - are interconnected.
The other aspect is corruption at all levels of power. A few days ago, in the capital of Albania, thousands of people took to the streets. The protests began after a major corruption scandal in the government.
The vice-premier of Albania, Iljir Meta, had to leave the post after Albanian media broadcast a video in which he demanded from the minister of the economy to share a bribe of 700,000 euros from the results of hydro-electro power station construction tender .
Are the problems of Tunisia, Albania and Egypt relevant to the former Soviet republics? There are some common features. For example, along with high macroeconomic indexes, there are a lot of problems in villages, a limited range of social possibilities for young people and so on. In Tunisia the authorities spoke a lot about innovation, however, this policy was ineffective. The important point is that it is not only one country full of these tendencies, but the whole region.
The problem of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia is that the contrast between the wealthy and the poor is too acute. Moreover, the political regime in Tunisia is similar to those in the major oil and gas countries of the former Soviet Union.
It seems that complicated political games with Islamic factors will not lead to the good, as in Tunisia.
However, it is unreasonable to say that in our countries a social revolution by the middle class could take place, as Nazarbayev and Medvedev are not Ben Ali or Mubarak.
Economic and social reforms in the Middle East appear to have been unsuccessful. Efforts to implement this model in the Caucasus and Central Asia will also be unsuccessful and lead to new conflicts.
Of course, the social revolution of the last century took place in the context of the First World War and a fuel and food crisis. Today world policy is provided by state and economic tools. If the crisis of 2007-2009 happens again, the middle classes will take to the streets. As a result, the protests will grow into the big uncontrolled riot of a mob.
Alexey Vlasov. Exclusively for VK.
