Russian flags in Armenia are a pledge of stability

The chairman of the opposition "New Times" party, Aram Karapetyan, talks about Armenia’s relationship with Russia, the political situation and upcoming major reshuffles in Armenia in an interview to VK.
- After having recognized the presence of serious socio-economic problems in the country the Armenian authorities recently started talking about the need for radical changes in the country. Don’t you think it is a paradox that the opposition has suddenly forgotten about its demands for regime change in these seemingly favourable circumstances?
- Armenia is in need of radical reforms of the entire administrative, political and socio-economic systems. Changes are needed in virtually all spheres. The problem is what actions to take to achieve real achievements, not only those declared through the transformations. We need to clearly understand the nature and purpose of these changes. First and foremost it is important to make progress and real change without bloodshed. The country needs real progress, not the illusory progress in the form of GDP growth, the dubious success of the authorities that we have seen over the past 20 years. Only a handful of people, who have full information about what's happening in the country, understand the severity of the problems and challenges faced by Armenia. All of these people realize that, if nothing changes, the impact of the current situation in Armenia, which some persist in characterizing as stable, will be very sad, for them as well. The current president of Armenia, Serge Sargsyan, is one of these people, as evidenced by his initiatives aimed at reforming the country. However, it will be difficult for Sargsyan to achieve a real change, given the cadre of his current political team.
Doesn’t the acting Prime Minister Sarksian fit into this team? In Armenia, many consider him a good financier...
- I agree with this definition. But always in any government, in any political field, there are political figures, which are dramatically alone in nature. Tigran Sarkisian is precisely the figure, the politician who was once needed by the president to maintain a stable economy. The prime minister was once the chairman of the Central Bank and had great capacities for that and good relations with international financial institutions. But the president, judging by his statements at a recent meeting with representatives of the departments of economics, had to raise the question of economic progress on the edge. This is clear evidence of the fact that the best times are in the past for the prime minister, as all his opportunities have already been exhausted. All the possibilities of attracting foreign credits, all the so-called quota for Armenia, has been exhausted. Even the loans and grants are not able to close the existing gap in our economy. The plan of Sarkisian to improve the economy through mere financial injections into the banking system and small and medium businesses has failed. Therefore, we should expect the president to take serious decisions about an indigenous personnel shake-up in the government, compared to which the previous retirements and rotations would seem nothing.
Today, the president needs advertising, even considering that his successes in this area are far more evident than in the recovery of the economic situation. The President actually tried to withdraw his ministers from their virtual world, but the question is to what extent he will manage it.
- You mentioned the president’s success in his public relations campaign. What is the role played by the foreign policy of Armenia, for example, in relations with Russia? The Agreement on the extension of the Treaty to host Russian military bases on the territory of the Republic, has not yet been ratified by either the Armenian or the Russian parliament. The signing of it has made a lot of noise, but the ratification somehow lingers. What are the causes?
- This contract is extremely important for Armenia. The paradox is that everyone is talking about the necessity and benefit of hosting the Russian troops in Armenia, but no one wonders why the ratification is being delayed. In my opinion, the situation is due to tete-a-tete agreements between Presidents Medvedev and Sargsyan. During recent talks in Moscow, Armenia was trying to get another big soft loan from Moscow, but was made only promises not to raise prices this year for Russian gas deliveries to Armenia.
These two very different, at first glance, issues have a direct relationship. Sargsyan has serious problems with the Americans on virtually the entire spectrum of the Armenian-American relations. Thanks to the extension of the Treaty on the presence of Russian military bases on Armenian territory, the republic will remain under the military's geopolitical umbrella of Russia for a long time. The latest Arab revolution, the fragile balance of stability in the region, possible strikes on Iran on the part of the US and the growing ambitions of Turkey cannot not pose a threat to little Armenia. One of the most important factors that could counter these threats are Russian flags on the territory of Armenia, the power of the Russian army, which is particularly based on nuclear weapons. There are certain realities that cannot be reckoned with, and which require early ratification of this treaty. We must strengthen in general the political wing, which supports the Armenian factor in Russian politics.
- Let’s go back to the political situation. The opposition cannot abandon the idea of holding early elections, although there is only a year left until the next elections. What is the reason?
- The best and most objective option for overcoming the current political and socio-economic crisis would just to hold snap elections, although there is a low probability of this. There are two ways out of the situation, completely different from one another. In the first case, president Sargsyan has to initiate major changes involving the dissolution of parliament and government. It's a tough decision, especially for a man who has been a functionary and not a politician for years. In case of refusal by the president to take decisive actions in this regard, Armenia will be facing the prospect of a popular uprising which will win this time.
The main reason for an uprising in Armenia is the lack of a vision of the future in people’s minds. Our society does not see the prerequisites for a dignified and secure life in the future, not only in material terms. People do not believe that these conditions will ever be created. Our citizens have no opportunity to realize their potential in their own country. This is the main reason for the looming rebellion in Armenia, as the social side, for all its importance, is a derivative of this factor. Even the high-income population does not necessarily contribute to the improvement of the moral and psychological atmosphere. One proof of this is the events in Bahrain, where the citizens have a fairly high standard of welfare but are hindered in practicing their civil rights.
- How do you see Levon Ter-Petrosyan in this uprising?
- Levon Ter-Petrosyan, in his time left power, but has never felt out of the power system. Our first president himself created the existing pyramid of power, he appointed all those people who are currently occupying the political arena. The political career of Serzh Sargsyan began precisely with the coming to power of Ter-Petrosyan. It is impossible to change the political authoritative structure from within. The politician who created this system cannot change it, even after his retirement and subsequent return to politics. Therefore I do not expect Ter-Petrosyan to raise a people's revolution that will lead to radical changes in Armenia under the pressure of the masses.
Interview by David Stepanyan, Armenia. Exclusively for VK.