On June 24-25 in Kazan a summit of the three presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia is taking place. It is expected the sides will sign an agreement on the basic principles of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. A deputy of the Azeribaijani parliament, political scientist Rasim Musabekov, commented on possible scenarios and consequences of the summit.
- What are the possible scenarios of the meeting in Kazan?
- There is only one scenario. The document is put on the table. It will be adopted or not. Russia will do its best for the result of the summit to be the signing of the document.
- Do you think this is possible?
- Of course. Why not? The possibility is high. The preamble of the document has been agreed. In Astana the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed up to the statement bythe presidents of Russia, France and the USA on the principles and basic elements. I think this document won’t contain all the Madrid Principles, which enables the sides to avoid some issues and maintain their positions before the framework agreement is developed. In addition, there will probably appear some duties of the sides to improve the ceasefire regime and the mutual trust regime. However, I believe that the point of the meeting in Kazan is declaring the development of a framework agreement.
- What do you think will be consequences of signing the document?
- I don’t think there will be any serious consequences, as the document is about agreement with the principles of the settlement, not about some particular actions.
Criticism will appear. First of all, the opponents of Serzh Sargsyan will criticize. In Azerbaijan there will be people who will say the summit has failed, as no territories will return to Azerbaijan. The principles have been discussed for five years. Now Armenia might discuss the framework agreement for ten years. I think such criticisms will be heard from Azerbaijan. However, reasonable people understand that a complete failure of the summit would negatively influence the situation in the region.
- How could the results of the Kazan summit influence the process of improving Armenian-Turkish relations?
- I don’t think anything will change in this direction. Not until Armenia leaves the occupied territories, will Turkey open its borders. In any other case it would cause a heavy anti-Turkish reaction in Azerbaijan.
Interviewed by Vsevolod Veselov. Exclusively to VK.
