A chance for Shamba

Early presidential elections in Abkhazia are due to take place on
August 26, and new candidates can be put forward before July.

The election campaign started in relatively calm political
circumstances. Experts are surprised by the lack of echoes of
political strife in the media, but that doesn't mean the situation
won't ultimately spin out of control.

Ironically, the contradictions between the ruling party and the
opposition are not so serious as the contradictions within Abkhazia's
ruling elite. It is possible that the ruling party will be represented
by two candidates in the upcoming elections: Sergey Shamba and
Alexander Anquaba.

According to Russian MP Konstantin Zatulin, Russian PR specialists
shouldn't interfere in the Abkhaz election campaign and should instead
let the Abkhaz people choose the preferred candidate among the two on
their own, as Russian interference in previous Abkhaz elections caused
more damage than good.

Nevertheless, Russia has to retain control over the Abkhaz political
scene, as this is its foothold in the whole Georgian and South
Caucasus situation. That's why the Russian authorities might not heed
Mr Zatulin's warning. It is most likely that the Kremlin will try to
make Shamba and Anquaba settle their dispute over power on their own,
without involving the general public. This is all the more important,
as the opposition candidate, Raul Khadzimba, has a real chance of
succeeding.

Moscow is more likely to support Shamba, as he has close connections
with the Kremlin elite and could prove more cooperative in the future.

Alexey Vlasov. Exclusively to VK