.jpg "Nagorno-Karabakh: change of status-quo is now the top priority")
After the failed Kazan meeting the majority of political experts expected the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process to come to a dead end. Some also expected that the Russian President would step aside and cede the negotiating initiative to other mediators. But it didn’t happen: Russia is obviously devoting to creating basic principles acceptable for both sides, and the personal message of President Medvedev to the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, as well as the visits by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Yerevan and Baku, confirm it. Russia intends to stay a major player in Caucasian politics and isn’t about to back out of the negotiations.
Of course, nine inconclusive meetings at the highest level might have delivered a blow to Medvedev’s image as a peacemaker and mediator, but
everyone who has even a primitive understanding of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem can see that reconciling the two sides is an extremely difficult task. By taking an active part in the process, however, Medvedev managed to achieve two important goals: firstly, he proved that Russia is interested in resolving the conflict and not maintaining the status quo, as many experts thought. And secondly, Russia finally restored its peacekeeper status in the Caucasus, which was uneasy after the recent armed conflict with Georgia.
The details of Medvedev’s proposal to the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents haven't been made public yet, so neither are the responses to them. However, Azerbaijan’s presidential representative on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, Araz Asimov, told ‘Echo of Moscow’ radio station that Azerbaijan’s ready to compromise. However, the key point of Baku’s position remains the same: the restoration of Azerbaijani territorial integrity.
For now, the so-called Madrid principles, published on July 10, 2009, are the base document for the negotiation process on Nagorno-Karabakh.
The principles, in their essence, are:
1) Return of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan;
2) Granting ‘transitory status’ to Nagorno-Karabakh;
3) Creating a corridor connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh;
4) Determining the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh only by
mutual agreement;
5) Return of all refugees to their homes;
6) Guarantees of safe peacemaking operations.
The ‘transitory status’ is supposed to grant all rights and freedoms to the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as their safety. Of course, the Armenian ethic community of Karabakh is more interested in such a status, as it is the one interested in its independence in the first place, but it is wrong to equate ‘transitory status’ and independence for the self-pronounced republic, as it would certainly allow Azeri refugees, if they are to return , to take part in the decision on the future of Karabakh.
Right now the situation doesn’t allow the mediators to agree to maintain any longer the status quo, which benefits only the Armenian party . Armenians hope that, as time passe,s the chances of Azeri refugees wanting to return to their original homes are growing slimmer. As political expert Alexander Rhar told VK in an interview, in 20-30 years there will be no more legitimate refugees to return. That is why Armenia is doing everything in its power to stall the negotiations. However, for now, the result is the opposite of the expected one: the refugees haven’t abandoned their hopes of return, but are growing more and more determined by the minute.
Armenia is also trying to populate Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding territories with Armenians, attempting to create an illusion of the prevalence of Armenian ethnicity in the area. However, the increasing rates of migration from Armenia triggered by economic problems seriously hamper this plan. According to Forbes independent rating, Armenia’s economy is the second worst in the world. That is why Armenia has to reconsider its position and start real negotiations with Azerbaijan while it is still ready to compromise.
Orkhan Sattarov, head of VK’s European Bureau.
