After the relative failure of the Kazan meeting, "a tactical pause" began in the negotiation process around Nagorno-Karabakh. It is necessary for the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides to express their opinions concerning Dmitry Medvedev's new suggestions, aimed at taking the conflict out of stalemate. However, judging by the information background in the period between the Kazan and Sochi meetings, a final rapprochement of positions is delayed for uncertain time.
Armenian media sources widely comment on the reasons for the virtual failure of latest meeting of the three presidents. The Azerbaijani side has laid down the so-called 10 clauses. From the point of view of Baku, it is necessary to add the clauses to the already coordinated Madrid principles. According to commentators, their general meaning boils down to a more accurately defined formula - peace in exchange for territories.
The Turkish and Azerbaijani mass media have analyzed the attitude of the Baku government concerning new suggestions by the Russian leader
fairly carefully. However, they agree that the reaction of Yerevan to Medvedev's letter could, to a large extent, be negative, which will finally bring the negotiation process into a blind alley. Meanwhile, according to vague and obscure hints, the reaction of the Azerbaijani side is more benevolent.
It is noteworthy that the Armenian experts actively discuss the further scenarios for the negotiation process. However, unlike the Azerbaijani analysts, who mainly focus their attention on the tactical aspect of the issue, their neighbours focus on fundamental, methodological problems, contemplating the significance of the Madrid principles as a format for a peace settlement.
A characteristic highlighted by the head of the Centre for Regional Research, Richard Kirakosyan, is very interesting in this context. He has noticed that the Madrid principles are no more than "a notice for the negotiations". "It is not a plan for peace. Any clause can be excluded." According to the expert, Russia, as the main mediator, may enjoy such a right. A functionary of Armeia's Dashnaktsutyun party, Kiro Manayan, has expressed his opinion in a far more categorical way.
From his point of view, both Yerevan and Baku are unready to accept the suggestions of the Russian president and the Kremlin knows about
it, because, if the reaction had been positive, Moscow would have already started the information preparation for legitimization of its success at negotiations.
However, Mr Manayan has been more anxious about the fact that neither he nor his party still don't know the contents of Medvedev's letter. Apparently, Dashnaktsutyun has already taken certain steps aimed at getting "the truth" concerning the suggestions of the Russian leader from the Armenian authorities.
Members of the Armenian party in power estimate the prospects of the negotiation process otherwise. A Republican Party parliamentary deputy, Mr Aleksanyan, expressed hope that at the forthcoming Sochi meeting, which is already being talked about in Yerevan as a fait accompli, Russia will take a somewhat pro-Armenian stand, because, according to the member of parliament, the maximalist approach of the Azerbaijani party doesn't suit the mediators.
However, both the Armenian politicians and experts emphasize that the participation of Russia in the negotiations as the main moderator is a
positive factor.
Meanwhile, in Yerevan political circles, rumors are circulating that if the next meeting is a failure, followed by a possible Russian withdrawal fro the role of the main mediator in the negotiation process, the USA is ready to play this role. Supposedly, the USA has a specific plan in store, acceptable both for Baku and Yerevan.
To tell the truth, it is very difficult to believe in. Perpetual «ritual dances» around the Madrid principles have clearly shown that Moscow, Washington and Bruxelles in fact operate with the same approaches. It is unlikely that Washington, currently being in preinfarction angina, is capable of offering any miracle cure, which could change the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh drastically. So the Sochi meeting has not come to reality yet, but the parties are already excitedly engaged in their habitual business – myth-making. To be continued.
Alexei Vlasov. Exclusively to VK
