What is the future of Azerbaijani-Israeli relations?

Worsening relations between Ankara and Tel-Aviv make Baku the only ally of Israel in the whole Muslim world. The situation has certain risks and new opportunities.

Against the background of the deep crisis in the Turkish-Israeli relations, Azerbaijan is taking a wait-and-see attitude. The presidential aide on foreign policy, Novruz Mamedov, rode off on a side issue, expressing his hope for overcoming the crisis in relations between the two states. It seems that the Baku authorities haven’t yet defined their strategy within the context of the conflict between their two allies – Turkey and Israel. The Azerbaijani administration doesn’t want to take any side. It is reasonable for Baku to maintain relations with both parties. The question is: could Azerbaijan stay neutral when tensions in the Middle East will be boiling over? Such a crucial moment could come with the vote in the UN on the recognition of Palestine as a state.

On the other hand, Azerbaijan and Israel are highly interested in development of bilateral relations.

As for Israel, it has always been loyal to Azerbaijan's intention to develop relations both with Israel and the Muslim world. Tel-Aviv understands how important the support of the Muslim Club for Baku is, especially in the Karabakh conflict. That is why Azerbaijan hasn’t yet opened its embassy in Israel, and Tel-Aviv urges Baku to define its priorities as quickly as possible.

Azerbaijan has demonstrated its intention to widen relations with Israel many times. Multi-million dollar military bargains have been signed between Tel-Aviv and Baku, notwithstanding criticism by neighboring Iran.

As relations with Turkey are worsening and a new anti-Israeli front in the Middle East is forming, one of the main courses of Israeli foreign policy will be improving partnership with Azerbaijan. That is why Lieberman’s plan, which includes counter-steps against Turkey and establishing close cooperation with Armenian community, is unlikely to become reality. Turkey and Azerbaijan have one solid view on any issue concerning Armenians, and any dalliance with the Armenian lobby will be perceived harshly by Azerbaijan too.

Meanwhile, the foreign minister of Israel, commenting on Lieberman’s plan, didn’t touch on the possibility of cooperation with Armenians. So we can conclude that Israel doesn’t want to touch on issues sensitive to Azerbaijan.

It is difficult to say how Turkey will view Israeli-Azerbaijani relations in the future. It is possible Ankara will urge Baku to support Turkey more actively. We should remind you that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has once criticized Israel for the attack on the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara in 2010.

However, notwithstanding public support for Turkey by Aliyev, no anti-Israeli rhetoric is observed in the Azerbaijani media. Even the description of the events aboard the Mavi Marmara is neutral. It means Azerbaijan is not tied to the chariot of Turkish foreign policy toward Israel. It partially follows the interests of Ankara too, as friendship with Baku prevents Tel-Aviv from approaching the Armenian lobby.

Nevertheless, Baku can provide its balanced policy only till one of the sides – Turkey or Israel – takes radical steps, which will force Azerbaijan to choose.

However, whether Israeli and Turkish relations are further strained or the crisis will be solved is an open question. At least Ankara demonstrates that it wants Israel to apologize, rather than break off relations in solidarity with Palestine. Israel hopes that the current crisis won’t last long, and many politicians stand for making apologies to Turkey.

What should Azerbaijan do in this situation? Should it be a neutral observer or a mediator? As Azerbaijan has the trust of both sides, it could play a significant role in normalization of relations between them and improve its position in the international political arena. However, such mediation has its own risks, but it could be behind curtains without public statements and declarations.

Orkhan Sattarov. Head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza