We are on the eve of serious changes and the outlines of the future are still not clear. The world financial crisis, problems in the sphere of information and social security, conflicts of generations, destruction of value systems and, on the other hand, active searching for religion by young people. This reality is not only current, but also future for the next 10-15 years. These processes touch on the South Caucasus and the whole former Soviet Union space, which is at a stage of economic, social and security reformation
New risks are appearing. Countries and integration structures like the OSCE, CIS and SCO haven’t found an adequate answer to them. In the next few years Russia and Armenia could be more vulnerable to external influences, as happened in the Arab world.
The structure of the challenges is changing, the rules of the game in the sphere of international relations are changing too. This process can be characterized as chaotization, which leads to instability. It happens in the context of losing the last remains of former Soviet influence in the former Soviet Union space. In Russia and Armenia a new generation, which has no experience of Soviet social life, is coming into power. Few young people from Armenia have the opportunity to communicate permanently with young people of Russia. Of course, there are Internet and social networks, but if we look at the number of Armenian students in the History Department of MSU in the 1980s and today, the comparison is rather sad. And this is an index of the attraction of Russia as country, where the education is the best, where life and studying is comfortable and business ambitions are implemented.
Meanwhile, a new reality is being formed, and the South Caucasus and Central Asia are becoming a united geostrategic region. Thus, we should consider it in context, relying on common “windows of new opportunities” for the Caucasus and Central Asia and ability to react to new risks and to resist them effectively.
One thing is obvious, the geopolitical role of the South Caucasus will grow, as well as the role of other territories, which are cross-cultural, for example, which interface between Islamic and Western civilizations. As one Russian political scientist noted, the transitional situation of the South Caucasus will define its unique abilities in implementation of modernization plans of the Greater Middle East and establishment of effective dialogue between Europe and the countries of the Muslim world.
The notion of a “geopolitical bridge” correlates to the real status of the South Caucasus. However, big words are not enough for making the scheme of civilization communication work. That is why it is clear that the success of the South Caucasus' modernization will depend on a settlement of intra-regional contradictions.
The so-called frozen conflicts are the main factor preventing intra-regional integration and the transit potential of the region, as its attraction for foreign investment, which are mainly invested in the sphere of energy and transition of gas and oil, whereas other directions of investment are at a low level. Expenditures are too big. In the near future the relevant strategy for the South Caucasus will be win-win, as suppression of rivals is not an effective option for realization of national interests.
The aim is to turn potential rivals into close partners. Realization of such strategies is possible only in the context of integrating constituents, for example, projects for railway development, establishing united centers for preparing and retraining staff, as one of the main targets of modernization today is development of the strategy of increasing the quality of human resources.
At the moment, many of the long-term suggestions seem to be half-fantastic. Of course, a negative factor for the South Caucasus is the influence of foreign forces. We should realize that the risks and challenges of the 21st century demand consolidation of the efforts and potentials of all the republics of the South Caucasus, with the active participation and support of Russia.
Aleksey Vlasov.
