Moscow to support Baku

Moscow will support Baku in its intention to become a temporary member of the UN Security Council, the official representative of the ministry for foreign affairs of Russia, Alexander Lukashevich, stated on October 5th. Answering a question about Azerbaijan as a candidate for temporary membership of the Security Council, he said that it is difficult to comment on the situation. “We appreciate and understand the importance of this issue for Azerbaijan, and we will strive for a positive solution to the problem,” Lukashevich stated. Earlier, Yerevan reacted very negatively to the intention of Azerbaijan to be a temporary member of the Security Council of the UN. The foreign minister of Armenia, Edward Nalbandyan, said that “many people are interested how a country which provides an aggressive policy, propagandizes war, the authorities of which are proud that their military budget has increased 20-fold in the last 6 years, a country which uses force as an important part of its policy and, in fact, threatens peace, could be a candidate for temporary membership of the UN Security Council.” “I think it will have a negative impact on the UN's image,” Nalbandyan concluded. It appears Russia has another view.

Possible support of Azerbaijan as a candidate for temporary SC membership by the Kremlin is very important for Baku. It can confirm that, notwithstanding speculation on deterioration of Russian-Azerbaijani relations because of the South Stream project, Russia doesn’t want to risk its strategic partnership with Azerbaijan. This could be a signal that Moscow wants to enhance bilateral relations. After the failed summit in Kazan many experts speculated that Azerbaijan was disappointed by the Russian mediation, and as confirmation they noted President Ilham Aliyev didn’t come to the milestone summit of the CIS. We cannot say Russian-Azerbaijani relations are undergoing a crisis. After Vladimir Putin came to office in 2000, they have been increasingly developing. Moreover, some facts indicate a new period of warm relations between Azerbaijan and Russia. For example, on October 10-11 Baku is hosting the International Humanitarian Forum, the ambassador of Azerbaijan in Russia, Polad Byulbyulogly, said. According to him, presidents Aliyev and Medvedev will participate in it. The heads of the countries suggested holding the forum every year.

Moreover, it is no accident that today in Baku deputies of the ruling party are discussing support for the Eurasian Union idea, the initiator of which is Russian prime minister Putin. Establishing of the Eurasian Union along with the EU could bring positive effects, the Azerbaijani MP Aydyn Mirzazade thinks, Trend reports. “An alternative to the EU can be established, a new structure. Let organizations that unite countries, cooperate rather than compete,” he said.

Returning to the temporary membership of Azerbaijan of the UN Security Council, it correlates with the interests of Russia. First of all, in the sphere of international affairs, like the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Russia and Azerbaijan have similar positions. In addition, considering the high level of partnership between the two countries, it will be easy for Russia to coordinate its activity in the Security Council with Azerbaijan. For example, Baku and the Kremlin will probably try to prevent further intervention in the Middle East by Western countries, as we see in Libya. Secondly, Azerbaijan’s rivals in Eastern Europe are Slovenia and Hungary. Slovenia is a state with a pro-American foreign policy. The USA and Slovenia have a visa-free regime. In Hungary the right-wing party Fides, which doesn’t really like Russia, won the last parliamentary elections in 2010. An historical burden still negatively influences relations between Russia and Hungary. That’s why Azerbaijan is the most favorable Eastern-European candidate for Russia.

Despite competition with Slovenia and Hungary (the second is the EU member that is increasing its chances) Azerbaijan's chances are not bad. The League of Arab States has already stated its support for Azerbaijan. Baku can also count n traditional support from the Organization of the Islamic Conference. The foreign ministry of Azerbaijan also invited permanent representatives in the UN of countries of Africa, the Pacific Ocean region, Asia and the Caribbean Basin.

However, we shouldn’t forget that temporary membership of the Security Council will impose a certain responsibility on Azerbaijan. The question is whether the country is ready to express its views on all the issues which are considered by the Security Council. In this case Azerbaijan could face hard choices and spoil its relations with its neighbors. For example, if Azerbaijan has to vote for or against a Syrian resolution, it will be trapped between two fires: Turkey on the one hand, and Russia and Iran on the other.

Nevertheless, temporary membership of the UN Security Council will increase Azerbaijan’s weight in the international arena. It will be a great diplomatic achievement for Azerbaijan.

Orkhan Sattarov.