It seems the numerous forecasts that France would play a more active role in mediation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are beginning to be fulfilled. After the visit of French President Nicolas Sarkozy to all three countries of the South Caucasus, it was unofficially announced that a meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents is being prepared by the French side, the Azerbaijani agency Turan reported. Official Paris is initiating the meeting of two South Caucasian presidents to encourage them to revive negotiations on a Karabakh settlement. This idea was supported by the USA and Russia. According to the agency, the initiator of the meeting is Nicolas Sarkozy, who spoke about it during his visit to Yerevan and Baku. The reactions of the sides weren’t forthcoming, the agency reported.
After the failure of the other round of talks on the Karabakh settlement under Russian mediation, there was an uncomfortable situation for everyone. The sides of the conflict have nothing to talk about. The Armenian President avoided the EU attempt to organize a meeting with the president of Azerbaijan within the summit of the Eastern Partnership in Warsaw. Meanwhile, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stepped back from mediation, and considering this, only a new initiative from France or the US could save the peace process. Otherwise, tension in the conflict region would continue to grow and the risk of a return to war would increase. Attention paid to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has grown too. The US ambassador to Baku, Mathew Bryza, spoke about the visit to Azerbaijan by the deputy state secretary for democracy and human rights, William Burns. According to the American ambassador, the aim of Burns’ visit is to provide the Baku authorities with new ideas on a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which were developed by Burns and the American co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, Robert Bradtke.
However, these new ideas haven’t found reflection at the hearings on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the Croatian city of Dubrovnik within the autumn session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE. According to the Armenian agency News.am, the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group of the OSCE spoke at the meeting. Bradtke stated that the mediators see a settlement of the conflict within three principles: non-use of force; the territorial integrity of the states; the right of nations for self-recognition. He also stated that a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict includes six elements: freeing of the regions around Nagorno-Karabakh; giving transitional status to Nagorno-Karabakh; providing Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh with a direct connection; a final solution on the legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through expression of the will of Nagorno-Karabakh's population; return of refugees to their homes; providing the region with international security and conducting a peacemaking operation.
Thus, nothing new was stated at the OSCE PA session. There are other factors, which prevent settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the near future. The unstable position of Serge Sargsyan within the country prevents him from lobbying unpopular decisions in the Karabakh issue, which are necessary for overcoming long-term crisis. However, the threat of war renewing doesn’t frighten Armenia: they count on the interference of Russia, as Moscow supports Yerevan and has its confidence. Such a role could be even called stabilizing, but for maintaining the status quo, which makes the whole region suffer. Yerevan understands this and doesn’t put forward any compromise, using the Karabakh card in its internal and foreign political manipulations.
The situation influences relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. Unlike many countries of the CIS, Baku tries to cooperate with Moscow equally. It doesn’t strive to enter the NATO alliance, hostile to Russia.However, Baku is disappointed with some elements of Russian policy in the South Caucasus. APA reported the second secretary of the Security Agency under the foreign ministry of Azerbaijan, Elchin Guseinlin, stated at the GUAM conference in Baku: “Ties between Russia and Armenia lead to instability in the region. The smallest country of the region, Armenia, has important military political agreements with Russia. Conflicts in the region prevent it from development. If these conflicts were settled, the South Caucasus could be an economically developed region. The position of Azerbaijan is well-known: until conflicts are settled, no mutual projects are acceptable.” Thus, Azerbaijan doesn’t understand why Moscow counts on poor dependent Armenia rather than on cooperation with economically prosperous Azerbaijan.
The gas factor plays its own role. Exploration of the gas deposit Shah Deniz-2, opening of two new gas deposits Umid and Absheron, and active energy policy of the EU in the Caspian region lead to increase of risks. Too many projects can stay unimplemented, too much revenue can be lost. On the one hand, many experts consider the gas factor as preventative. On the other hand, Europe doesn’t want to accept an unsettled conflict near promising gas projects and pipelines. Actually, this should encourage Europe for active efforts in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Europe should develop a new adequate negotiation strategy, which could answer a simple question: who the aggressor is, who the victim is, whose territory is occupied, and whose territorial integrity is broken. However, Sarkozy’s visit to Armenia didn’t show France’s readiness to put pressure on Yerevan. It means an imitation of negotiations will continue.
Orkhan Sattarov
