The decisions of the latest CIS summit and the meeting of EurAsEC heads of government provided food for reflection for all post-Soviet space.
Moscow and Astana seem ready for even closer economic integration. Vladimir Putin didn’t fail to mention the contribution of Nursultan Nazarbayev in the shaping of ‘Eurasian ideology’.
Kyrgyzstan agreed to join the Customs Union. Will Tajikistan follow? On the contrary, Baku and Tashkent intentionally distance themselves from the common trade zone, while Ashkhabad - as expected - took its time over its deliberations. Kiev, while joining the common trade zone, didn’t let Moscow have its way as far as the Customs Union is concerned. As for Baku, it’s not surprising that Azerbaijan doesn’t want to be a part of any common space with Armenia, given the nature of their relations. Tashkent sticks to the bilateral model in its foreign policy, instead of actively participating in international organizations’ activities.
The rapid success of Putin’s ‘Eurasian idea’ didn’t surprise CIS leaders. Of course, the decision to allow Bishkek into the common trade zone and the Customs Union must have been controversial for the Kremlin: it is obvious that Kyrgyzia is currently unfit to meet any necessary standards and demands.
However, it seems that the Russian PM managed to convince his colleagues that the positive impact of the very fact of a new member joining the Union is much greater than any problems it might cause.
However, as far as benefits from membership of the Customs Union are concerned, the picture isn’t so unambiguous for all the CIS countries. Initially, prices shot up at first, but the volume of trade rose by 50%. Moreover, a new anti-crisis fund is being formed, and the countries of Central Asia and Armenia are relying on it.
Nevertheless, there’s still a certain feeling of dissatisfaction among the Customs Union candidates. For a long time now, all CIS countries blamed Russia for being inert and uninvolved as far as CIS integration processes were concerned. However, when Russia started showing its interest and involvement, its neighbors became concerned about a possible revival of Moscow’s imperial ambitions, given that Mr Putin is the author of this new political course. It is possible that not only CIS political elites, but the peoples as well could rise against this sort of integration. So the Kremlin shouldn’t cherish vain hopes even after this recent success: all previous schemes of Eurasian integration (including the USSR) have failed, and in the current conditions Moscow won’t have another chance to re-start the process.
Alexei Vlasov. Exclusively to VK
