Two years have passed since Armenia and Turkey signed a series of agreements in Zurich, with the mediatory help of the USA, France, Switzerland and Russia. It is unlikely that the two countries would have proceeded with the accords if not for these mediatory efforts. It is interesting, that it was not the Turkish public that was mostly opposed to the border opening, but the Armenian diaspora, the most determined opponent of any agreement with Turkey.
All signed documents still remain only sheets of paper, and Armenia has put every effort into keeping these agreements shelved. It seems that Turkey’s genuine efforts to overcome the 17-year-long conflict run into Armenia’s complete reluctance: it did everything to stall the ratification of the agreements, including Serge Sarksyan’s unprecedented tour around all major diaspora centers. So now the fate of the Zurich agreements is even more uncertain than it was 2 years ago.
The reason for breaking off diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey in 1993 was Yerevan’s anti-Turkish propaganda campaign, promoting the international recognition of the “genocide” allegedly committed by Turks against the Armenian population of the Ottoman Empire at the beginning of the First World War. The occupation of 20% of Azerbaijan’s territory by Armenian troops and territorial claims to some parts of Turkish Anatolia also contributed greatly to the conflict.
In 2009 the conflicting parties decided to resolve the situation. The so-called “football diplomacy” was crowned with the signing of a series of agreements – the so-called ‘roadmap’ for a conflict settlement - by the two countries’ foreign ministers in Zurich on October 10. The agreements stipulated a gradual rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, to the point where a level of stable good-neighborly relations was reached.
However, all the efforts to achieve any progress ran into the two most difficult problems: the issue of «genocide» recognition and the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The triumphant start of Turkish-Armenian reconciliation came to naught, despite all the efforts of the US. No agreement on a precise date for Zurich documents' ratification has ever been achieved.
It is true that both sides did everything they could to keep the process suspended from the very beginning. Turkish officials didn’t fail to draw parallels between Turkish-Armenian and Armenian-Azerbaijani conflicts on each and every occasion, asserting a firm connection between the two reconciliation processes, while the Armenian side refused to make any concessions on the ‘genocide’ question.
It seems that the process that the Armenian president launched in Zurich has turned out to be much more difficult than he could handle and Sarksyan couldn’t possibly continue it.
The Armenian constitutional court introduced amendments on ‘genocide’ and “Armenian” territories in Anatolia to the documents, making them unacceptable to Turkey. It looked like Armenia was trying to do everything in its power to "play back", as Sarksyan couldn’t handle the pressure from the Armenian diaspora spread all over the world, which resists all the efforts of Armenian government to improve its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The Armenian lobby in the US Congress tries to push the international “genocide” recognition forward. It is not surprising that the Armenian government is so attentive to the diaspora’s opinion – it provides for a considerable part of Armenia’s budget, while the country’s economy by itself is very frail, at best.
In 2009 there was a risk of catastrophic deterioration in relations between Ankara and Baku, but pragmatic interests took the upper hand over the offence. The Karabakh issue is one of the determinative factors in Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, as the restoration of its territorial integrity has been the top priority of Azerbaijani policy since the occupation, and Turkey’s unconditioned support in this question is very important for Baku. The Zurich agreements caused a crack in trust between the two countries and caused Azerbaijan to make some anti-Ankara statements, which, in their turn, affected the countries’ partnership in energy transportation. However, this misunderstanding was solved immediately after Turkey refused to ratify the agreements with Armenia if they were to harm Azerbaijan’s interests, even despite pressure from Western countries.
Even though the marked rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey constructed a major political event in the region, it had no impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. And the problem that the Zurich protocols pose to Azerbaijani-Turkish relations isn’t yet completely settled, even though Turkish leaders have confirmed their full support for Baku’s position on many occasions. The fact that Erdogan’s party remained the ruling one after the recent elections suggests that no major changes will be introduced into Turkish policy in the foreseeable future.
On 22 August 2011 the Turkish parliament lifted 898 unrevised bills from the parliamentary agenda, and the two Zurich protocols were among these documents. This gave the media and the politicians the opportunity to turn their attention to the problem of Turkish-Armenian relations once again. Of course, this decision was more of a technical one, and the protocols were referred back to the agenda already in September.
Of course, there are some partisans of rapprochement with Armenia among Turkey’s political and public figures. The closed border has a disastrous effect on the Armenian economy, but it also hampers the development of Turkey’s provinces bordering on Armenia and generally slows down integration processes in the region. Nevertheless, normalization of relations with Armenia are not at the top of Turkey’s agenda, as it has more pressing issues, like problems with Israel or the question of Cyprus. Moreover, Ankara can’t ignore Baku’s negative attitude towards any Turkish-Armenian agreement, as it has important joint projects with Azerbaijan in the energy field and as Turkish-Azerbaijani relations have reached a level of stable strategic partnership. Ankara also heavily relies on Azerbaijan’s gas and oil fields in its energy contracts with the West.
Therefore, there’s no reason to expect any progress in Turkish-Armenian relations any time soon. In its turn, there seems to be no progress at all in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, despite all the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group. And the longer it remains unsettled, the greater the risk of a new violent breakout grows.
Togrul Ismail, Ankara Economy and Technology University
