Iranian-Azerbaijani relations are shaken

The Iranian city of Qom hosted the conference “Support for an Islamic revival in Azerbaijan and criticism of Islamophobic policy.” It revealed problem issues in Iranian-Azerbaijani relations. The moderator of the event, Muhammedbagir Tahriri, not only heavily criticized Azerbaijan for the prohibition on wearing the hijab in schools, but also urged the citizens of our country to disobedience.

However, no mass disobedience took place in Azerbaijan. Most of the population of the country didn’t notice the call of the Iranian hierarch. At the same time, these words by Muhhamedbagir Tahriri provoked criticism from the representatives of the ruling party of Azerbaijan, "New Azerbaijan" (Eni Azerbaijan). The deputy chairman, executive secretary of Eni Azerbaijan, Ali Akhmedov, stated, according to 1news.az: “Unreasonable accusations of Islamophobia against Azerbaijan, which were voiced at the international conference in Iran, have cast a shadow over Azerbaijani-Iranian relations.” According to Akhmedov, “it is well-known that Azerbaijan is a secular state. We follow international values, which are laid out in the basis of our statehood. Moreover, our society respects the cultural and ethnic values of Azerbaijani people and Islam.”

The sharp statements by the Iranian cleric were voiced around the time a dangerous incident occurred at the Iranian-Azerbaijani border. An armed Iranian border patroller crossed the border and was shot dead in Azerbaijani territory. It doesn’t seem as if he was unaware of where the border line lies. In addition, Iran reacted nervously to the arrests of activists of the illegal Islamic Party of Azerbaijan, which Baku considers to be an instrument of Iranian influence.

So there is a new wave of tension in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. And the initiator of the wave is Iran again. The leaders of the IRI, who convince everybody of their brotherly feelings towards Azerbaijan, provide in reality the opposite policy. Baku tries to calm the situation down, as Iran is rather unpredictable. Furthermore, it is seen that economic links between Azerbaijan and Iran are developing more slowly than cooperation between Iran and poor Armenia. Turnover between Armenia and Iran in 2010 grew by 38%, it amounts to $270 million, the ambassador of Armenia in the IRI, Grigor Arakelyan, told the Iranian information agency FARS. At the same time, turnover between Iran and Azerbaijan in 2010 amounted to $160 million. Thus, despite plans by Baku and Tehran to increase turnover up to $10 billion, this prospect is very long-term.

In addition, rapid development of economic cooperation between Iran and Armenia correlates with the Marxist principle, according to which policy is concentrated in economic form. Political and military cooperation between Armenia and Iran is developing even more actively than the economic one. Baku draws its own conclusions, but doesn’t voice them. However, to be fair we should note that Iran voted for the resolution of the UN, urging Armenia to stop the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and neighboring territories. On the other hand, Iran supports the withering economy of Armenia and enables this South Caucasus republic to continue the occupation policy toward Azerbaijan.

It is understandable that the Iranian leaders are afraid of Azerbaijani statehood in general. Moreover, Baku doesn’t intend to deny its Turkic roots and admit Iranian theories, according to which Azerbaijanis are Turkish Persians.

Directly or indirectly, the strengthening of Azerbaijan's secular state will influence the views of millions of Iranian Azerbaijanis. Self-recognition of southern Azerbaijanis threatens the mullahs' regime. The problem is hidden in the core of the Iranian theocratic regime, which considers religious rather than ethnic identity as the main identification aspect. Despite the severity of such regimes, they are not very stable. The Soviet Union and Yugoslavia’s experience show that ethnic movements on the outskirts can lead to wide-scale consequences.

One more problematic issue is Iran's export of the Islamic revolution. Azerbaijan, which stated itself to be the legal successor of the Azerbaijani Democratic Republic, sees a secular system as the basis of statehood. In addition, Islamist movements in Azerbaijan are supported by foreign forces. The policy of the Azerbaijani authorities on protection of secular values doesn’t satisfy Iran. Azerbaijan has historical links with Iran, and most of the population of the country is Shiah. Azerbaijan is a direct target for the Islamic revolution, but it isn’t an easy undertaking.

Azerbaijan provides a multi-vectoral foreign policy. Many experts describe Azerbaijan's political course as pro-Western. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was one of reasons for this, as it decreased opportunities for political manoeuvering for Azerbaijan. Russian support for Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict limited the integration potential between Baku and Moscow. Up to a certain time, such a policy, oriented to the West through a Turkish perspective, has been rewarding. Some experts think that at the moment Baku faces the necessity of making certain corrections to its policy in the region. The doctor of the Free University of Berlin, Bakhruz Abdolvand, said in an interview to VK that “in the Islamic world, a policy of re-Islamization is provided, while president Ilham Aliyev considers Azerbaijan to be a secular state and wants to turn towards Turkey, notwithstanding that Turkey is Islamicized. In this context, contradictions between religiously-motivated Iran and Western- and secular-oriented Azerbaijan appear.” Thus, the political expert compares Iran and Turkey in the future, as neither supports secularism.

Are these views reasonable in the long-term perspective? Time will tell. At the moment Azerbaijani-Turkish relations are improving. It seems that the crisis connected with the signing of Zurich protocols on normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations has been overcome. This is proved by the agreement on the price of Azerbaijani gas for Turkey in Shah-Deniz-2. In Izmir, the first session of the Strategic Partnership Council of Azerbaijan and Turkey took place. If Baku and Ankara manage to use the current positive impulse and move to a new level of relations, the importance of Turkey inside of Azerbaijan will grow.

At the same time, due to an aggressive policy, support for terrorism and the nuclear crisis, Iran has a vulnerable position in the world arena. It is doubtful that tension between Baku and Tehran is disadvantageous more for Iran or Azerbaijan. So Iran hardly dares cross the line.

Orkhan Sattarov.