Less and less time is left before Iran announces the creation of a nuclear weapon. The possibility of a military strike on the territory of Iran is increasing proportionally.
The influential British newspaper "The Guardian" cited its own sources in the Ministry of National Defense, according to which Britain was ready to support the US in the event of a military strike on Iran. British military strategic officials are already composing a plan for future deployment of warships and submarines, the Guardian reports. It is possible that in the event of a military operation against Iran, Washington and London will actively use the military base on the Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean. We know that the British government is concerned about the "insensitivity" of Iran to the sanctions which are being introduced against it and which failed to influence its nuclear program. The Stuxnet virus, which was allegedly launched by American and Israeli intelligence agencies, allowed time to be bought, but did not cease the Iranian nuclear program. In the next 12 months Iran will be able to hide materials needed to build a bomb from any possible missile strike, the Guardian reports. What in fact is this article in the respected British publication: another "sensing" of the ground, or another "leak" about a planned military
operation, which may begin within the next 12 months? Such sensations rarely occur by accident on the pages of respected newspapers. It is even harder to imagine that the sources in the Ministry of Defence have leaked from inexperience - it is obvious that this was a deliberate information "surge." Typically, these publications are a proven method to probe the possible reaction of the international community, initiate a discussion at expert level and, most importantly, to give a clear signal to the main addressee - Iran. The fact that Iran is actively working on the development of nuclear weapons has been discussed for a long time already, despite the assurances made by Iran on the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.
However, the former vice-president of the IAEA, Olli Heinonen, who has directly dealt with the Iranian nuclear issues, is not inclined to believe Tehran. In his extended interview with the magazine "Der Spiegel", Heinonen spoke very sceptically about the declared peaceful nature of the nuclear program of Iran. For example, he notes that there is absolutely no need for Iran to enrich the uranium up to 20 percent for the production of nuclear power. Moreover, in early June of this year Firudin Abbasi, the chief of the nuclear organization of Iran, said that transferring the production of enriched uranium from the Nathans atomic system to the Fordov atomic system and triple its production. Heinonen is convinced that such an amount of enriched uranium far exceeds the amount needed for nuclear power plants, research, etc. Experts suggest that by 2014 Iran will obtain enough plutonium to build its own atomic bomb.
This a terrifying scenario for Israel. However, many experts question the assumption that Iranian religious fanatics will immediately fulfil the promise of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to "wipe Israel off the map" immediately after they get a nuclear bomb in their possession. These experts state that, despite all the fanaticism of the Iranian leaders, they are well aware that this will be followed by a retaliatory nuclear strike by Israel and the United States. But production of such theories somewhere in Brussels or Paris is not the same as considering the possibility of such an attack in Tel Aviv or Haifa. It is no less important that, after Iran develops a nuclear weapon, it will receive an actual immunity against foreign intervention, and Israel will become the best candidate for the role of "hostage", to be sacrificed in case of a force majeure. Together with a nuclear bomb, Iran will become much more secure than Saddam's Iraq or the Taliban in Afghanistan and will substantially increase its own influence in the region.
The consequences of this policy will negatively affect not only Israel,but all the territories to the north, including Azerbaijan, which Iran cannot forgive for being a secular state and having normal relations with the United States and Israel. Iran can use any pretext for launching a war, starting with the unresolved dispute about the status of the Caspian Sea to the ban on hijabs in schools, as well as regular revelations of an "unmasked a spy.
Either way, the strengthening of "the Iranian factor" does not fit into the US policy in the region. However, the issue of a preemptive strike against the nuclear facilities of Iran is at the center of controversy even in Israel.According to polls published recently by the Israeli newspaper "Haaretz" , 41% of Israelis are in favor of a preemptive military strike and 39% - against, the remaining 20% could not give an answer. There is no unity in the Israeli government either: while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for a military solution to the Iranian problem, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has opposed this idea. Recently, the head of Israeli diplomacy said that media reports concerning an alleged plan by Israel to deliver an air strike on Iran is untrue. In an interview to News.ru - Israel, Lieberman declared that 99% of the information appearing in the media is far from reality.
Contradictions in Israeli society are quite understandable. They have every reason to fear the response of Iran's military. Different models of Iranian missiles can strike any point in Israel. Especially taking into consideration the fact that on November 2 the chief of military staff of Iran once again threatened to strike Israel in case of an attack on the nuclear facilities of Iran.
It is also clear that in case of US intervention, Tehran will not have even a theoretical chance of winning. The head of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, told reporters in Moscow that Iran at the moment finds itself in a ring of encirclement. " The general stressed the need to strengthen Iran's air defenses, but at the same time expressed doubt that Russia will sell it S-300 missiles.
However, the main ally of Israel is in possession of "brakes" of an internal political character. According to analysts, the presidential campaign in the United States complicates the adoption of a decision to launch a military operation against Iran, as no one needs a war before the elections.
At the same time it is peculiar that this wave of interest in the Iranian nuclear program started exactly one week before the IAEA is expected to present a new report on possible plans by Iran on the development of nuclear weapons. Therefore, we cannot exclude the fact that the military authorities of various countries, including Britain, have already read it and decided to begin psychological preparation of the public for a military scenario. Unfortunately we have to assume that a
military strike on Iran, as well as Iran becoming a nuclear power, will have long-term destabilizing effects. In this situation, only the initiation of real negotiations between Iran and the IAEA, without attempts by Iran to delay the solution, will be able to save the situation from exploding. The question is, whether Iran has enough political will for it and if the world is still ready to talk to Iran.
Orhan Sattarov, head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
