On Tuesday information from a new IAEA report on Iranian nuclear program was leaked to the mass media. Many analysts guessed that some its expressions are fairly tough and very suitable for lobbying for a new campaign on anti-Iranian sanctions in the UN Security Council. According to the gathered data, Iran has all the necessary resources for development of nuclear armaments.
The reports also say that Iranian experts have developed short-acting detonators, which are intended for a nuclear bomb. Moreover, the document contains data on nuclear tests by Iran.
Serious international concern is caused by two factors. First of all, Iran owns missile carriers, which are able to transport warheads up to thousands of kilometers. Secondly, Iran has enriched uranium up to 20%, which is not necessary for peaceful use of nuclear energy, according to experts. The IAEA report throws light upon other details pointing to the military character of the Iranian nuclear program.
The veracity of the information spread by the media is beyond doubt. Even top American officials actually confirmed it. The official representative of the State Department, Victoria Nuland, said: “This secret report was sent to the States by the head of the IAEA. I understand that some of the content was leaked to the mass media, but we are still studying the document. We plan to meet the administration of the IAEA on November 18th.”
The Iranian authorities reacted immediately and predictably. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad denied all the conclusions drawn in the IAEA reports. According to the Iranian leader, the document is based on groundless data obtaines from the US. Iran wouldn’t retreat from its chosen path, France Presse reports. At the same time, the president of the Islamic Republic stated that the Iranian nuclear program is peaceful.
However, the West doesn’t want to believe Tehran’s statements about its peaceful nuclear program. Serious suspicions that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon is based on data of investigations by more than ten member-states of the IAEA. After official discussions of the report with the IAEA, which will take place in the near future, the international community, supported by the USA and Israel, will deal with Iran actively.
The report puts Tehran in a difficult situation. Considering the fact that the IAEA is an independent structure, controlled by the UN, it will be difficult to dispute its conclusions.
Iran accuses the IAEA of bias and serving the USA and Israel and urges the organization to pay attention to Israeli nuclear programs. At the same time, Israel hasn’t signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, hasn’t entered the IAEA, hasn’t obtained nuclear technologies for promises not to develop nuclear weapons, and it has never promised to wipe Iran off the map, like the Iranian leader Ahmadinejad has said about Israel.
Iran doesn’t agree to international cooperation in the nuclear sphere under realistic conditions. Officially, Iran justifies the construction of its own centrifuges with the negative experience of international cooperation with the USA and Germany, which withdrew all their projects after the Islamic revolution in 1979. Tehran doesn’t want a repeat of old mistakes. On the other hand, it is not clear why a nuclear power station is needed in the country, which has great oil and gas resources. Thus, the contradictory nature of Tehran undermines trust.
The current excitement for this theme is hardly caused by the USA's desire to be involved in a military campaign in this region. Many take the Iranian threat seriously. The current report by the IAEA caused discussion about the possibility of a military settlement of the Iranian crisis. The main supporter of launching preventative strikes on Iran is Israel, which has reasons for considering Iran to be threat number one to its security. Publishing new details about Iran's nuclear program could weaken the positions of the Israeli party of peace, headed by the foreign minister of the country, Avigdor Liberman, and strengthen the positions of the “hawks” in the government. The prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanykhu, supports tha idea of launching missile strikes on Iran. President Shimon Peres stated that a military campaign against Iran is becoming more real. The minister of defense, Ehud Barak, said that the losses of Israel in case of war with Iran would be about 500 people. It is obvious that the minister of defense knows better. However, it is not clear whether Barak meant military forces only or losses of civilians too. It is highly probable that after any possible strike terrorist attacks by Palestinian militants will increase. Moreover, it is difficult to forecast developments in Syria, which is an ally of Iran and has found itself in the situation of a civil war. At the same time, the majority of the international community, including Russia, China, Germany and France, is against a military campaign against Iran.
That is why at the moment, in the context of the IAEA report, launching harsh sanctions against Iran is more real than missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In such a situation Russia and China are hardly likely to use their veto right, considering their demarche during the recent voting on the Syrian resolution. However, the Russian foreign ministry has already stated its firm position on non-admission of new sanctions against Iran. On Wednesday the deputy foreign minister, Gennady Gatilov, voiced the Russian position. “Any additional sanctions against Iran will be considered in the international community as an instrument for regime change in Tehran,” the deputy minister said in an interview to Interfax. China is still studying the report. Meanwhile, Germany and France came out in favor of new sanctions, and France threatened sanctions of an incredible scale. The effectiveness of the measures aimed at influencing Iran is doubtful. An expert of the German Fund of Policy and Science, Oliver Tenert, thinks that the main problem is in definition: what sanctions should be launched to touch upon those who are responsible for development of the nuclear program, rather than ordinary citizens.
The situation will worsen if Russia and China are unyielding in the situation around new sanctions against Iran. That would be condemned by the international community and enable Israel to implement one-sided steps, including preventative strikes.
Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European bureau of VK
