The 6th Institute of the Caucasus international conference on events in the preceding year took
place as usual in Yerevan. It is also supported by the Armenian mission of the Euro Commission, the Heinrich Boll Foundation and the Development and cooperation agency of Switzerland.
Experts from Armenia, Russia, Georgia and Turkey discussed the security and economic problems of North and South Caucasus. The director of the Center of development, cooperation and pluralism Ivlian Khaindrava explained his vision of the main events of foreign and domestic policy of Georgia. According to him, the most important event for Georgia besides the cessation of observation missions of the OSCE and the UN was the change of administration in the US. The advent of Obama to power corrected the US policy towards Georgia. "President Saakashvili got carte blanche from the Bush administration, but comprehensive support turned out to be counterproductive - Saakashvili felt it and overstepped the line", Khaindrava stated. But, he said, the US is still actively supporting Georgia, only this assistance "got new outlines". Speaking about the events in the region, Khaindrava mentioned the signing of the protocols between Armenia and Turkey and expressed his regret that this process did not find a broad response among the elite, the opposition or Georgian experts. Among the most important domestic events he singled out the activation of contacts between the representatives of Georgian opposition ex-premier Nogaideli and ex-speaker Burzhanadze and theKremlin. Khaindrava called the main distinction of 2009 the fact that country concentrated on self-preservation: "The country licked its wounds and tried to recover after the war. The majority of the population recognized with a delay that Georgia had lost the war. Everything was bleak but not hopeless. We just needed to shake out the political elite".
The director of the Armenian centre of the national and strategic researches Richard Giragosyan described the situation in Armenia. According to him, the crisis of March 1st 2008 was still resonant. There was a stalemate in internal political life, the authorities did not manage to overcome the results of the crisis, and neither did theopposition. Defining the opposition's activities the expert noted: "It is not enough to organize rallies twice a month and give interesting speeches - struggle for power is an everyday routine work. That is why the opposition has already lost the youth". According to the expert, the authorities did not realize that the opposition is also a part of political elite and keeps on seeing it as a danger for the country. In2009 political confrontation in Armenia was not only between the power and the opposition, but also inside the power elite. Contradictions between the two parts of the ruling coalition - the Republican party of Armenia and the Prosperous Armenia party - were intensified. Speaking about key players, the expert expressed his opinion that there are three presidents in the centre and added that Robert Kocharyan is much more dangerous for the current president Serzh Sargsyan that theSpeaking about economy the expert warns: " In 2009 Armenian government came to the fork in a road: it needs to restrain the oligarchs or it will have problems. The government should not set hopes upon evolutionary changes, and it must and will prefer evolution to a revolutionary attitude towards oligarchs, because the economic factor plays a very important role in the domestic life of the country. According to Giragosyan, the crisis in Armenia became deeper, new social and economic problems appeared and the most important thing is that there are no real signs of the end of the crisis. He is sure that a combination of "a stalemate in the internal political life plus economic crisis" will cause changes in Armenia.Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for VK.
