After the attack on the British embassy in Iran the conflict between the West and the Islamic Republic shifted to a new more difficult stage. The barbarian-like attack on the British embassy by Iranian students, which was actually approved by the authorities of the country, made supporters of constructive dialogue with Iran change their minds. When the closest ally of Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khameni, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Ali Laridzhani, says that he “understands the students’ anger,” it is difficult to speak about diplomatic efforts in settlement of the Iranian problem.
This Iranian provocation is favorable for those, who stand for launching of harder sanctions against Iran. The foreign ministers of the EU countries ordered experts to develop technical details of ban on Iranian oil import. The foreign ministry of Iran threatens the world by double growth of oil prices. If West bans Iranian oil export, oil prices can grow up to $150. Top officials try to given an impression that they don’t afraid of sanctions. The ambassador of Iran in Germany, Ali Reza Attar, gave an interview to Spiegel, in which he said: “Sanctions has been existed for 33 years. We got accustomed to them. We became stronger. Now you (Europe) should think how you will explain it to our companies.” However, America is preparing for increase of oil prices.
According to some sources, Saudi Arabia is ready to compensate Iranian oil import. The American senator, Mark Circ, said that Saudi Arabia will increase oil production in case of harder sanctions against Iran. It will protect world markets of hydrocarbons from stress, Rossiskaya Gazeta reports. Riyadh is ready to compensate Iranian share. Experts remind that the countries of the Persian Gulf had ruined economy of the USSR by dramatic reduce of oil prices. Moreover, they say that certain alternative can be the Caspian oil.
Export of Iranian oil can be hampered by the USA sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran, which provides payment operations for oil exported from the country. After attack of the GB embassy even senators-democrats voted for launching of new sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran despite President Obama’s will. Nuclear Iran is more dangerous than high oil prices. In the current situation it is hardly Obama rejects the bill developed by senators. The same situation is about alternative between Iran and the USA: European fuel companies will rather deal with Washington.
The vice president of the US Joe Biden urged Turkey to new serious steps against Iran during his recent visit to Ankara. This urging was voiced right after Iran stated direct threats toward Turkey. “If we are threatened, we are ready to strike missile defense shield of NATO in Turkey. Then we will move to other targets,” Amir Ali Hadjizadekh, the head of airspace subdivision of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, BBC reports.
It is not clear whether Ankara will support sanctions against Iran or not. Iran and Turkey are economic partners. In 2011 turnover between them surpassed $15 billion. Ankara and Tehran share common views in many spheres, including the problem of Kurdish militants. However, in Syria Turkey and Iran have different positions. It is not clear how relations between two countries will influence developments in the countries of Arab Spring, including Egypt.
It is even more difficult to forecast how Turkey will behave in case of military force variant. Considering recent statements of top officials of the US and Israel, possibility of launching military attack on Iran becomes more and more grim. According to the deputy foreign minister of Israel, Dani Ayalon, the US and Israel agree on necessity of preventing Iran from further weaponization and on the way to do it. At the moment only economy steps are considered.
Of course, Israel is not paralyzed by fear. At the same time, military campaign against Iran is a difficult task. Launching air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities can be ineffective and can cause a big war against Israel. “Iranian operation” will be difficult for the US too. Attack of Iran will cause indignation in Iraq. It is more difficult to imagine reaction in Afghanistan. It seems hopes that Iran will never agree with Taliban and forgive them for deaths of their diplomats in Mazari-Sharif didn’t fulfill. At last, serious problems for Washington are created by Pakistan, which has special relations with Iran. Recently the German periodical Bild has published secret documents of NATO, which says that Islamabad and Tehran have close cooperation and support militants in north Afghanistan. It is obvious that the USA won’t risk being involved in another military adventure with such “reliable” reward areas and economy problems.
Thus, it is a stalemate in the Iranian game. West has no other alternative except launching economic sanctions against Iran as unilateral procedure. However, it is hardly these actions will be sufficient for preventing Iran from developing nuclear armament, if Tehran deals with it.
Another case is tension of internal political environment in Iran. Permanent threat of war, sanctions and rivalry between supporters of Ali Hamenei and Ahmadinejad weaken positions of the ruling group. In case of internal instability economy sanctions are effective instrument.
Ohran Sattarov.
