Author: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mehmet ŞAHİN, ORSAM Middle East Advisor, Gazi University Department of International Relations
The fact that the Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu's visit to Iran, which started on January 4th 2012, will last for two days shows that the agenda is very busy. This visit is important for the two parties, both in terms of the relations between the two countries and also because there are regional issues in need of immediate solutions.
During the important talks within the visit to Iran, which we carried out with the Palestinian Friendship Group between the dates January 1st-4th, 2012; we clearly observed the fact that there are serious issues such as, and especially, the developments in Syria and the missile radar system, which should be discussed between the two countries. We can easily state that in addition to the Syria and missile radar system issues, the issues such as the tension between Iraq, Palestine, Iran and the West, and generally the regional developments caused by the “Arab Spring” , which were/should be talked between the two countries, would be the major topics of the agenda of Foreign Minister Davutoğlu's visit to Iran.
The Syrian Issue
What has taken place in Syria since March 2011 has not only affected Syria, but also it has had major effects on the regional balances, on the Turkish-Iranian relations in particular. The fact that Turkey took sides with the Arab League and the Civil movements against Assad/Ba'ath after she lost her confidence in Assad on Syria; and on the other hand, the pro-Assad attitude of Iran brought Iran and Turkey against each other. In respect of the current situation, the two countries stand in different places on Syria. Therefore, there is no doubt that the major topic of Davutoğlu's visit to Iran would be the developments taking place in Syria.
The Missile Radar System Issue
The fact that the missile radar system, which is called Missile Shield, was decided to be installed in Malatya-Kürecik within the frame of the decision of NATO, considerably disturbs Iran. Iran thinks believes that this system is wanted to be installed directly against her, and Turkey, on the other hand, states that the aforesaid system does not target any country, and that it is a system aiming at protecting the NATO member countries against the missile threat. Furthermore, Iran mentions that the aforesaid missile radar system aims at monitoring Iran and protecting Israel, and Turkey, on the other hand, indicates that Israel, which is not the member of NATO, cannot benefit from this system. Despite all the talks that have been carried out up till today, neither of the countries could convince one another. During our visit to Iran, as the Iranian top-level authorities explicitly indicated as well, today, the missile radar system comes first among the issues that disturb Iran the most. And it shows that the primary issue, which would be brought up to the agenda by the Iranian authorities during Davutoğlu's visit to Iran, would be the missile radar system issue, in addition to the Syrian issue.
The Iraqi Issue
The fact that the political crisis in Iran is carrying on by getting much deeper with each passing day right after the withdrawal of the U.S. troops from Iraq, and its evolving into a Sunni-Shi'ite conflict are such as to result in regional effects particularly in Iran and Turkey. Unfortunately, as in Syria and in missile radar system we mentioned above, it is seen that Turkey and Iran have different opinions also on the current crisis taking place in Iraq. While Turkey wants a stable Iraq, who ensures the integrity; Iran considers Iraq as a tool for her own security and pursues such a policy. There is no doubt that the attitudes of both countries will be determinant in overcoming the crisis in Iraq. As always, the Iraqi issue will continue to be one of the major issues of Turkish-Iranian talks/relations both today and tomorrow.
The Ongoing Tension Between Iran and The West
Iran has been going through severe problems with the West, with the U.S. in particular, because of the regional policy Iran has been pursuing for a long time, but especially because of her Nuclear activities. Since 1979, the problems between Iran and the West have constantly been leading to tension in the region, and creating major problems for the countries in the region. And Turkey comes first among these countries. As a matter of fact, making new sanction decisions against Iran leads Turkey to pay a considerable price in commercial, economic and political terms.
Palestine
The fact that the Palestinian issue, which is the chronic problem of the Middle East, cannot be solved has seen the countries in the region pay the price for years. Recently, the fact that Israel has been establishing new settlements in Palestinian territories, especially in Jerusalem; and Israel's Jerusalem policy come first among the delicate issues for both countries.
The “Arab Spring”
The Arab civil movements, which started on December 2010 and were described as the Arab Spring, have been profoundly influencing the Middle East. The aforesaid civil movements have carried both Iran and Turkey to a crossroad. Iran and Turkey, who share the same opinion on the civil movements taking place in some countries, have adopted different attitudes on the developments in some countries, as seen in the example of Syria.
We can easily say that the agenda of the Foreign Minister Davutoğlu's visit to Iran will be on the main topics that we have mentioned above. Considering the urgency and importance of the issues both for the region and for the both countries, the importance of the visit is understood better. However, it is obvious that such intense and important issues cannot be solved in a short time and with a few talks. Therefore, it would be useful to increase the frequency of the high-level dialogues and visits between the two countries, in order to carry the problems into a solution process, or at least, in order to maintain in a controlled manner.
