Tomorrow Turkmenistan elects its president

Tomorrow Turkmenistan will hold presidential elections. Eight candidates are running for the presidency, including incumbent President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. In the modern history of Turkmenistan it is the second alternative presidential election. The first one took place in 2007. Yesterday, Russian experts commented on the changes in the electoral system of Turkmenistan, the main foreign policy risks and prospects of implementation of energy projects.

Director of the International Institute for Political Expertise, Evgeny Minchenko:
There is no reason to expect the elections to be at the center of an attempt to organize another "Arab spring" revolution. There are a number of internal contradictions associated with the level of the population, with inter-tribal relations, but in general, I think that today they are largely cropped. There is a problem that was once typical for the Maghreb and Middle East countries, associated with excesses of a young population, a high unemployment rate, that is a generational gap. But until now this issue has not been critical.

Regarding the economic situation in Turkmenistan, according to the expert of "Vestnik Kavakza" the main problem is still the restriction of movement, because given the situation in the regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan, which will only get worse, the gas route Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) is unlikely to develop in any way.
There are risks associated with Iran, and that is why the Iranian direction is also quite risky. There are unresolved issues with the Caspian Sea, particularly concerning the Trans-Caspian pipeline issue. A long-term external risk factor might become a question of unilateral re-orientation of Turkmenistan towards China in the following years, and to a lesser extent towards other Asian countries such as Turkey and Malaysia. If we recall past events, the intensification of cooperation with China has become one of the factors of external risk.
If Turkmenistan conducts a competent foreign policy, does not irritate investors, lets them understand the opportunities and ensure minimal visibility, and if there is no external pressure, the regime can be fairly stable for several more years, maybe even decades.

Senior Fellow, Center for Euro-Atlantic security, Andrey Kazantsev:
At the present time, and possibly in the next two or three decades, the region of Central Asia, and not only Turkmenistan, will experience very serious foreign policy risks associated with a variety of circumstances. And these risks will affect Turkmenistan and exacerbate all the existing problems in this country. I would single out four main international risks prevailing in the situation surrounding Turkmenistan.
First I would like to mention the Global Risks report, which was compiled and released before the Davos forum. It lists the socio-economic and political risks which have a global dimension, but also impact on such states as Turkmenistan which have a high dependence on imports of food, etc. It highlighted a number of parameters, which are global in scale, but may nevertheless have an effect on Turkmenistan. It talked, above all, about problems with food supply in the situation of a rapidly growing population, because, as you know, food prices are rising in the world at large. There has been very high volatility in energy prices in the world. It also talked about the problems associated with environmental crises. In the situation of a country like Turkmenistan, which is quite vulnerable to such external shocks, these risks are of great importance, and, of course, must somehow be taken into account in the policy of both the government of Turkmenistan, and all external players interacting with it.
The second risk is the situation in Afghanistan. There is a very big risk for all the countries surrounding Afghanistan, because, as you know, the Western coalition forces plan to leave this area. A number of reports and papers were released, also by means of information leakage, which stated that there is a very high probability that the "Taliban" will come to power with Pakistani support immediately after the withdrawal of US and NATO combat troops. In this situation, all the neighboring countries of Afghanistan, and I will allow myself to go back to the situation that prevailed in the late nineties, the risk that has already taken place then, could happen again. Yes, of course Turkmenistan largely avoided risks back then due to the fact that it was able to negotiate with all the Afghan players, but whether it can reenact this situation is a very big question.
The third key risk is the intensification of the struggle between the major external actors in Central Asia. The US is going to move the main focus in the supply of their arms, troops, and so on to Afghanistan to the northern route since the southern supply route is almost blocked. The American politics attach a lot of attention to Turkmenistan nowadays. Respectively, the pressure on Turkmenistan will increase.
The fourth and last risk is the situation in Iran. In the event of major combat operations in Iran, Turkmenistan might become seriously affected, especially in the case of a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Director-General of the National Energy Security Fund, Konstantin Simonov:
We know the current position of Turkmenistan. In their opinion, the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline is the issue of only two countries - Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, and there is no need to consult with other Caspian states. That is, roughly speaking, nobody is going to ask Russia if these two countries reach an agreement between each other. In fact, we know that Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have had an uneasy relationship, they are engaged in a number of territorial disputes around the fields in the Caspian Sea, but now everything is solved, the agreement between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan is there. However, the pipeline is not being built, and understandably so - because, of course, Russia cannot agree to the construction. I believe that the legal position of Russia is absolutely justified. I will not go into details of the old Soviet-Iranian treaties, but let me remind you that if we are talking about shipping there are no questions. It is no accident, I never criticized the projects of construction of stations to supply CNG - compressed natural gas, although these projects existed. On the other hand, from an economic point of view to build such projects and transport natural gas through the Caspian Sea, compressed or liquefied, is pointless. However if there is such a desire, no one can legally stop Turkmenistan - it has a right to do it, but it is not doing it, as it is impractical from an economic point of view.
But the situation with the pipeline is more complex - yet again I am convinced that the position of Russia is legally justified. I do not understand what the Russian Foreign Ministry is doing - apparently they have other priorities. I do not see any professional activity of Russian diplomats. We used to have at least a special representative who talked about the Caspian Sea from time to time. Where did it all go? This is Russia's big mistake. We must continually clarify our position and remind about it, not to bring the situation to the limits. I am sometimes accused of holding a radical position, but I am not a supporter of the demonstration of muscle. I am convinced that, from a legal point of view, Russia has the right to use all possible mechanisms to prevent the Trans-Caspian pipeline. I am absolutely convinced that there are serious risks and challenges, and, paradoxically, it can be a serious problem for Turkmenistan. Earlier, Turkmenistan dreamed of diversification of supplies. It initiated the diversification, a gas pipeline to China has been built. Has it been lucky with this diversification, does it earn more, does China pay a good price? No, we all know that Turkmenistan supplies gas to Russia, Iran and China. We know that Russia is paying the highest price, Russia has long adopted the principle of netback that is, in fact, it pays the European price minus the cost of transit. China is paying very different prices. And I think it was a serious shock for the Turkmen elites.
The "Nabucco" project is practically in a state of clinical death, because the only gas there is the natural gas in Azerbaijan, from the Shah Deniz field, but it is not enough. There are only pipes for 49 billion. That is, "Nabucco" remains in a hole. The only thing that can save it is the Trans-Caspian pipeline. So we see how in the past year, Azerbaijan and Washington are courting Turkmenistan, various representatives are coming - from Morningstar to Barroso - and everyone is saying "let's build, go ahead." It is clear – it is in the interests of Europe. The question arises: will Turkmenistan benefit from the fact that it will be able to reach the European market directly and thus bring down prices, at least in the short term? Of course, Russia is not enthusiastic about this idea. The question arises: will Turkmenistan benefit from this policy? And by the way, I think that so far Turkmenistan has been acting very wisely: it constantly talks about the construction of the Trans-Caspian, but does not initiate the construction. It should be understood that in case of a harsh reaction from Russia, Turkmenistan will seek help from its partners such as Brussels and Washington. But it is not clear what guarantees can Brussels give Turkmenistan in case of Russia's harsh reaction to initiation of the construction of the pipeline. That is, Turkmenistan is involving itself in a very complex game itself. As for Russia, it does not agree on the construction of the Trans-Caspian and will never disagree with him, and this position is justified economically and legally.

Editor-in-chief of the "Problems of National Strategy" Adjar Kurtov:
There are eight candidates running for election. Not five as in previous elections, but eight. This is probably from a formal point of view a step forward, especially when compared to the 1990 elections, which did not provide any competition. In my opinion, delivery of information about these elections has improved. Turkmen newspapers started to publish much more material on the elections. Meetings are held there. Of course, you can search for good and bad issues and they do exist. If in the last elections, as I understand it rightly, a Turkmen voter had to cross out all the candidates he did not agree with, now you are required just to tick the name of the person you are voting for. The "against all" category, which used to be there according to the new law, will not be present on the ballot. When compared with Russia, Turkmen law indicates that all the candidates should take part in the debates (the term debate in the electronic media does not apply - there is the term "round table discussion"). Authorized representatives are not allowed to participate in the discussions. Although authorized representatives exist. There are many other interesting points. In the last month a law on political parties was adopted. From a formal legal point of view, this law is a step forward. In order to organize a political party only a small number of votes of supporters are enough. As well as during the nomination for elections, candidates could be nominated by political parties as well as public organizations and initiative groups of voters. The last category of voters requires only 10,000 signatures and not the number that is required in Russia. And at least one third of signatures should be collected in etraps, that is, in regions or cities with the rights of etraps, that is there should be at least 300 people. In fact, these measures are far more liberal than those existing in Russia, even if we compare the populations of our two countries.