Russia-China-USA: V-shaped world

Russia-China-USA: V-shaped world


“Sometimes I feel that America doesn’t need allies, it needs dependents.” Vladimir Putin

Putin warned the USA about “an effective and asymmetrical reply” by Russia to development of the global missile defense system.” RBK

“We shouldn’t lead on into temptation by our weakness. That is why Russia wouldn’t refuse from its deterrent strategic potential and will improve it, Vladimir Putin, the candidate to presidency, writes in his sixth program article.” Vedomosti

“America “is freeloading in the world economy due to its exclusive dollar position,” Premier Vladimir Putin said” Interfax

“The mantra of the election campaign of Vladimir Putin: the United States are working on weakening of Russia and returning it into chaos, which followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The position of Putin as a protector of national interests could help him to win in the elections in March 4th, but in the prejudice of “reloaded” relations between the US and Russia.” Toronto Star, Canada

Sergey Rogov, the head of the USA and Canada Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, speaks about prospects of Russian-American relations and prospects of “The Reload” in the context of coming elections.

Moscow-Washington

After August 2008 these relations were on the brink of a new Cold War. Normal dialogue between Moscow and Washington was broken. Since the administration of the US has been headed by Obama, there has been an attempt to start relations from a blank sheet. This attempt was successful. One of the most important steps was the signing, ratification and implementation of the new START. A series of other important treaties was signed. For example, treaties on cooperation in the sphere of peaceful nuclear power, the treaty on plutonium.

At last the long-term negotiations on the accession of Russia to the WTO were finished. It is an important stage of our integration into a global market. Of course, it could cause certain problems for our economy, but if we live in a global world we should play according to the rules of a global world, and as a member of the WTO we could influence the development of these rules.

Russian-American turnover, even though it’s not very big, returned to the pre-crisis level, i.e. the level it had been before 2008-2009. So I believe that “the Reload” was successful and it is finished. What is next on the agenda of Russian-American relations? The point is that the atmosphere of election rivalry makes any compromise decisions difficult to adopt.

Washington-Beijing

At the moment the deputy chairman of China is visiting Washington. It is a very important event, as not Russian-American relations, but American-Chinese relations become the main link in the chain of international relations in the world today. China has already got ahead of the USA due to its outstanding pace of development: in industry and exports. In 2016-2018 China will reach the level of American GDP, in 2025 - in the sphere of military spending. The United States is trying to adapt to a multipolar world. An attempt to consolidate the unipolar world failed. We have witnessed the overpressure of American forces. The US left Iraq and wants to leave Afghanistan. Today America faces a massive budget deficit. Every 30 cents, which are used by American citizens, are taken as debt by the US from China, first of all. Economic issues are the most significant in the American-Chinese talks. However, growth of Chinese military power makes Washington worry. Today China has the ability not only to protect its territory. It has begun to accumulate military strength as power projection, i.e. the ability to project power abroad and extend its security perimeter further in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. A month ago a new doctrinal document was published in the USA by the Pentagon. The document makes serious amendments to the American military strategy. The focus of American military strategy is being moved to the Asian-Pacific Region. In Russia no attention was paid to the document, but it called China a potential rival of the US for the first time. The document says: “Potential rivals of the USA, such as Iran and China.” It seems we are witnessing the beginning of Chinese-American military rivalry. This is the main theme in American foreign policy: China, not Russia.

Moscow-Beijing-Washington

We have many common interests, but it doesn’t mean that Russia and China have identical interests. They coincide on the problem of use of unilateral military force by the US and their allies, but China strictly refused to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The theme of unity reconstruction is not only about maintenance of the current territories by China, but also about unification with Taiwan. In the triangle Russia-China-USA our interests are keeping balanced relations with Beijing and Washington without joining with America against China or with China against America. It is not beneficial for us, as we can establish a bloc only as a “little brother.” It is doubtful that such alliances would bring benefit to us rather than as a “big brother.”

Washington-Tehran

They are discussing the problem of launching a strike at Iran in America. Both Democrats and Republicans have supporters of either a military or a peaceful settlement of the situation. Some say that Iran should be attacked before it’s too late, i.e. before Iran creates long-range missiles and nuclear warheads. Others say that the deterrent system would work against Iran too, just like it worked against the Soviet Union and China. The supporters of war reply that the Iranians are “insane mullahs” who want to die as soon as possible and join Allah. I think that Obama’s administration doesn’t need this war at all, especially in the context of the election campaign and the economic situation, which is still in crisis. The Americans have just left Iraq, and a Shiah government is ruling there. The US decided to leave Afghanistan, in this context, to create a situation with unpredictable consequences is very dangerous. However, there is a serious possibility that Israel will attack Iran. Actually, an Iranian-Israeli war is taking place at the moment. It is not a war between the armies of two countries. Physicists and diplomats are often murdered. Plus there is a cyber war. An election year in the US is always beneficial for Israel, as candidates try to attract the support of the Jewish community, promising support to Israel. Before late 2011 the US had been an occupying country in Iraq. Thus, they controlled the air space of Iraq. To launch a strike at Iran, Israeli aviation needs to fly across the territory of Iraq. In this case the US would automatically be an accessory to launching the strike. Now air space of Iraq is under the control of the Iraqi authorities, who have no aviation or air defense system. So I think a window is opening for launching a strike by Israel in spring-summer 2012. Today I have read an article in The Washington Times, which says that America is trying to persuade Israel not to do this. Are such articles reliable? It is difficult to say.

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