By Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is due to commence his visit Azerbaijan on April 3. It is no secret that Russian-Azeri relations are in the focus of attention not only of the journalists of the two states, but of the world media. Since 2008, the dynamics of Russian-Azeri dialogue have been boosted considerably, and not only in the area of energy-related issues, transport and the Caspian problem. The fact that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has personally taken up the task of healing the bleeding wound of the South Caucasus – the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict - is also very important. The efforts of Medvedev haven’t yet resulted in any actual progress, but they managed to preserve hope for a peaceful solution. Now the new president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, will take up the task of settling ‘frozen conflicts’. According to the Azerbaijani media, Lavrov’s visit is a sort of transition step from Medvedev’s to Putin’s era in Moscow-Baku relations. So what will this new era introduce to the peace process in Nagorno-Karabakh?
For now, neither Russian nor Azeri experts are ready to give a precise answer to this question. Some say that Putin will commit his attention to Transdnistria and substantiate their theory with the fact that Dmitry Rogozin was assigned as special representative there. Others, including the head of the RSUH Caucasian Studies center, expert Ismail Agakishiev, say that Moscow’s efforts in the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations will continue at the same pace. This point of view is supported by the words of several top Azeri officials. For instance, the head of the socio-political department of the presidential administration, Ali Hassanov, said that Azerbaijan expects Russia to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. “There is no other state in the world that had as much influence on this situation as Russia. Russia’s influence over Armenia is unprecedented; Moscow can turn this state in any direction. So we are staking a lot on Russia. Putin and Medvedev have already done a lot in this regard, and we think these efforts will be continued. We expect some progress to be made this year”.
It is true that Baku expects Putin to make Yerevan approach the situation in a more constructive manner. The unwillingness of Armenia to take the first step and free the occupied regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh is perceived as an attempt to stall the negotiation process by Azerbaijan. According to Baku, the Armenian government tries to escape making grave decisions that could influence the state’s home policy on the eve of parliamentary and presidential elections.
On the other hand, Moscow considers the document on renunciation of use of force in settling the conflict also to be a very important condition of the Madrid principles implementation. So how could one break this circle, especially when the very efficiency of the mediation format is being questioned by some experts? However, these doubts are directed not against Russia, a bit against France, but the essence of the question remains the same. For now no one can tell whether the progress made by the OSCE Minsk Group won’t be destroyed in the group’s membership changes. This question is vital, and it is possible that it will be discussed during Lavrov’s sojourn in Baku.
The final membership of the Russian delegation isn’t yet revealed, but one might suggest that the presence of Russian universities’ presidents points to yet another line of cooperation between our countries. Inter-university communication has been developing at a great pace recently. The preservation of a common cultural and humanitarian field indicates the strength of the dialogue. It is also a guarantee of the successful resolution of all contradictory issues: after all, despite all the turmoil of South Caucasian politics, Russia and Azerbaijan are destined to be close partners.
