Iran and SCO: strange relations and a strange break-up

The results of the Tashkent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit have become an unpleasant revelation for Tehran. The new procedures and requirements for the entering the organization have destroyed the ambitions of the Iranian political elite to join the Shanghai group.

Meanwhile, it is quite obvious that India and Pakistan have little chance of joining the organization in the near future, at least until the resolution of the Kashmir conflict. But this is unlikely to console Tehran. However, long before the Tashkent summit, when the summit's agenda had not been drafted yet, it was clear that nether Moscow not Beijing would present any gifts to Ahmadinejad. And it's not about Washington placing pressure upon China and Russia, but the unpredictability of Tehran, which could one day turn the SCO into a very vulnerable structure. Moving towards this direction in a situation when the organization has not yet determined its priorities is equal to suicide. And the major players of the Shanghai group realize it all too well. And I believe it's no secret for the Iranian authorities either, who despite their impulsive politics are well aware of the current diplomatic landscape.

Meanwhile Tehran was badly offended by the vote of China and Russia for new UN sanctions against Iran. Some parliamentarians even proposed to revise relations with Moscow and Beijing. This initiative did not receive wide support, but it definitely should not be ignored. Taking into consideration the quite difficult situation within the Shanghai group, in connection with the tragic events in Kyrgyzstan, the refusal to allow Iran to join the organization does not mean the collapse of the Moscow-Beijing-Tehran triangle. But the terms of preserving the trilateral dialogue is currently an issue in question. Obviously the SCO is interested in cooperation with Iran but not as an equal partner, the point is whether Tehran is ready to play the role of a sideliner. In the near future - yes, but further perspectives depend a lot on foreign powers, in particular the USA.

Alexei Vlasov. Exclusively for VK.