By Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK
The anniversary OSCE summit and the informal meeting of CIS leaders turned out to be a good occasion to make the ‘Putin 2.0 presentation’. The return of the Russian leader caused great joy among the gathering, which was most noticeable in the demeanor of Islam Karimov and Nursultan Nazarbayev. The unchallenged leaders of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan feel themselves more comfortable when they have to deal with Putin, who is psychologically close to them. And it is good news for the Kremlin, as the personal factor in post-Soviet politics is still very important. As compared to the general festal atmosphere of the meeting, the final documents look a bit too ordinary. The OSCE summit declaration has a distinctly ‘anniversary’ flavor. That means that the real problems will be dealt with at the final summit of 2012. The experts expect that the Afghanistan problem and the problem of counteracting non-traditional threats will become the key topics of the discussion.
The Kazakh President, who was the main speaker of the summit, said that the national leaders discussed the Middle East situation and the situation in North Africa, as well as Syrian and Iranian developments. However, any actual resolutions, if there were any, have not been voiced yet.
Of course, all the problems the OSCE has to deal with can’t have a quick and efficient resolution in the framework of this format, as was clearly demonstrated during the recent developments in Kyrgyzstan. When you have to adopt a consensus resolution in which every hour matters, it means you won’t be able to take any decisions at all.
In some cases this might be a good thing, if we bring up all the events of the Kyrgyz revolution in 2010. However, when a new terrorist or a military threat emerges, the current OSCE format of decision-making seems to be inadequate. That is why everyone wonders now what would the OSCE do if, say, Azerbaijan decides to take back Nagorno-Karabakh by force.
It seems that not only Mr Bordiyzha, but Azeri and Armenian experts are already tired of trying to answer that. However, it proves to be a very lucrative question for journalists, as a definitive answer is unlikely to be given by any official. That is why there is so much speculation around the OSCE, which doesn’t at all suit Putin’s plans for Eurasian integration and the OSCE’s plans in it.
Therefore one might assume that the next OSCE summit due to be held in 2012 will define the concrete pattern of the organization’s future reform. For now it is obvious that Afghanistan will remain the key issue till 2014, as well as such new challenges as information security, social security and so on.
However, these are only drafts of the plans that Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin have been talking about for two years now. Why will the process’s dynamics change now that Putin is Russia’s leader again? Judging from the warm reception he received from the CIS leaders, the process is likely to speed up.
