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By Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK
Experts participating in the discussion on the possible ways to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh have recently returned to the formula ‘territory in exchange for access to the regional energy and infrastructure projects’. The conflict resolving potential of this formula is being reevaluated.
There is no doubt that the formula could be used as one of the components of the negotiation process: in this case each party gets a certain compensation for the inevitable concessions. So this pragmatic formula could help all the participants of the negotiation to ‘save face’, and it is important mostly for the Armenian side, as any territorial concessions would mean a revision of the Karabakh war results for Yerevan.
According to the Russian and EU experts, there is a certain progress in the Armenia-Karabakh-Azerbaijan dialog, even though not on the official level. However, in the recent year and a half the experts who suggest possible ways of the conflict resolution have achieved a certain progress.
However, today’s level of trust is still insufficient to implement these new initiatives. And it might take quite a while before the experts’ ideas would be taken up by the governments. And of course, a long and careful preparation of the public opinion to these new decisive steps should take place first.
Of course, the home politics context is of great importance. Any compromise in the matters of the Azeri-Armenian elections could weaken Serge Sarksyan’s authority. And there’s yet another issue: the topics of Nagorno-Karabakh and of Armenian genocide are sort of cementing ideas for the world’s Armenian diaspora. And if official Yerevan renounces at least one of these components, it could cause serious difficulties in its relations between the Armenian political elite and the diaspora.
And there’s the third thing: how will the reconciliation process (if it was to start) influence Armenia’s relations with Russia? For today, the answer to this question is vague at best. So the experts should also pay more attention to this topic, and any of the Russian or the EU expert public forums could be used for that. The information background of the conflict in general should also be changes, and the first issue here is the issue of trust. Of course, the presence of economic stimulus is not enough to bring the positions of the two parties closer together, but with time and with improvement of the information background the realization of the experts’ ideas id quite possible.
