The National Assembly of Armenia adopted the five-year program of the new government for the period from 2012 to 2017 on June, 21. 75 deputies supported the program, 47 opposed it and the last one abstained from voting.
The program was supported by the deputies of the ruling coalition parties - the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and Orinats Erkir ("Rule of Law”). Among the opposition which voted against the program there were Prosperous Armenia, Heritage, Dashnaktsutiun and the Armenian National Congress (ANC).
Among the priorities of the government mentioned in the program there is the development of export-oriented production, export growth, and economic growth of 5-7%. The government intends to double the minimum wage, to increase pensions, to reduce poverty by 8-10 percentage points, to create 100,000 new jobs, to reduce social polarization, to create an atmosphere of equal competition and to improve the business climate. The program also mentions increasing science and education financing.
According to the Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan, this is the first time the government says that it will not only be responsible for providing normal business conditions, but also will participate in the implementation of the policy in the field of industry: "The main emphasis will be placed on domestic resources, because Armenia has a large untapped potential"- the Prime Minister expressed his confidence.
According to the deputy of the faction of the ruling Republican Party Gagik Minasyan, the program stands out because of the expansion of the fight against oligopolies which are considered to be the obstacles to creating a competitive economy.
Tatul Manaseryan, the head of the research center "Alternative", Doctor of Economics, believes that the program is more than realistic. According to him, Armenia has enough resources to implement the program and it primarily concerns human resources which are the platform for the development of any economy. The economist believes that the modest targets indicate a cautious government position: "The past year has shown us that the government is not afraid of making unconventional and bold decisions, and it doesn’t want to use quasi neoliberal economic policy imposed by Western institutions." According to Manaseryan, the measures mentioned in the program are the first steps that provide the transition to national social market economy.
Meanwhile, the representatives of opposition political parties (factions of Prosperous Armenia, Heritage, the ARF and the ANC) who voted against the governmental program strongly criticized it for lack of specificity and realism, and the abundance of generalizations. The opposition is sure that all the declarations of the program are superficial and do not contain specific solutions and mechanisms for achieving the goals.
"The government's program is more like a number of toasts. Everything will be expanded, improved, implemented, provided, reviewed, set up; every one of you lives in Armenia and hears all these wishes for birthdays and christenings: be healthy, let’s drink success to our strong country and our culture," - Alexander Arzoumanian, the deputy of the faction "Heritage", noted.
The representative of the PPA Vartan Oskanian believes that the program presupposes low ratio of tax revenue to GDP, "Today, according the most conservative estimates, the share of shadow economy is about 30%). Even if we provide the maximum of 0.4%, at best, the ratio of taxes to GDP will increase by 2% in five years; the average for the region has already reached 24-25%. This low figure is planned in some way as an attempt of the government to insure itself against accusations in the future "- said Oskanian.
According to the draft state budget for 2012 the share of taxes in GDP is provided at the level of 17.36%.
It should be noted that, along with harsh criticism of the program, the target of the opposition was also the failure of the previous program. The MP from PAP Naira Zohrabyan recalled that the government program for 2008-2012 promised reducing poverty, but over the years poverty rates increased to 35.8%, the promises of investment are not fulfilled, etc.
"The government has a right to rely on the confidence of the public and parliamentarians, only when it had a success in its previous activities, or at least had no serious mishaps. In this case, the same team, with the same politics and ideology, claims to continue what was started and never brought to the end of the deal. How can it fail the previous program and expect the vote of confidence being now with a clear conscience? Someone should be responsible for such failure and for the economic downturn of 14%. Serious changes are needed for serious progress,. "
Grant Bagratyan, the ex-Prime Minister and the member of the ANC also thinks that the current program is the same former program, which was completely failed by the same government: "I recommend the government to finally leave alone this figure of 100 thousand. First, the government declares that 100 thousand new jobs will be created when, according to official figures, the number of unemployed in the country is 75,000. Moreover, the program of the President Serzh Sargsyan also included that figure, but this promise was fulfilled by 1% only. "
Bagratyan expressed his doubts about the economic growth figures mentioned in the program. According to him, the average annual GDP growth rate in the world is 4%. The GDP of Armenia per capita is three times lower than the world average, "If our growth rate will be only two percent more than the world one, we need 57 years in order to reach the world average." According to the former prime minister, if it is possible to leave alone a couple of declarations from the program, it can be attributed to any other country, whether it be France or Mozambique: "The government does not understand that Armenia is going the way of Greece."
In addition to the poverty rate existing in the economy of the monopoly system, the target of MPs was also emigration which reached unprecedented levels. For instance, according to the estimates by some opposition politicians, a number of people equal to the population of average village, i. e. about 400 people, leave the country every day,.
"65,000 people have left the country recenlty, and this situation is generally provoked by the government and the parliamentary elections", - Aram Manukyan, the representative of the ANC, said.
The deputies weren’t satisfied with the answer of the Prime Minister that the government does not hide this fact, but, in contrast, tries to find solutions the main of which is the creation of 100,000 jobs.
Despite the harsh criticism of the authorities, the program, as usual, was passed and got the necessary support due to the majority of the parliament. However, despite the predictable result of the vote in the parliament on the governmental program, it is difficult not to notice that the situation in the political life of Armenia is quite new.
Just a couple of months ago, there were only about 20 opposition deputies in the Armenian parliament, and the most powerful opposition force, the ANC, was out of the parliamentary process. Many of the actions and the decisions of the authorities were not limited at all. Today, as a result of the parliamentary elections of May, 6, the ruling party which achieved a convincing victory received 50 deputies beyond of its control. We can assume that the government will now be under the pressure of such a great number of parliamentarians, and the discussion of the program of the government is the clear proof of that. Thus, the power free of any inconveniences for almost 14 years now seems to be doomed to constant discomfort. At the moment it is difficult to predict what how this discomfort will influence on the further political development, but one thing is clear - the internal political situation in Armenia has changed drastically.
The position of the PAP has played an important role in the creation of the new situation in the country. Before the start of the discussion it could be assumed that the government would vote against the program of radical opposition parties such as the ARF and the ANC, as well as the fraction of Heritage; in contrast, the position of the PAP about the program was more difficult to predict.
Many Armenian observers, even after the PPA refused to enter the ruling coalition, continued to assert that the PPA is not the opposition and we cannot deny the possibility that it may become part of the government once again. However, the behavior of members of the PAP faction who sharply criticized the government and its new program, as well as their vote against the program, have proved just the opposite. It is more and more obvious that the apparent split in the power which appeared even before the parliamentary elections of May 6 was the omen of the final split between the ruling Republican Party and its former partner in the ruling coalition, the PAP. This fact also contributed to radical changes in the political climate in the country.
