Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
To the background of fire-fights between the governmental troops and the rebel “Free Army of Syria,” the armed opposition announced beginning of the military operation “Volcano in Damascus – earthquake in Syria” in suburbs of Damascus. RIA citing France Press reported that the joint statement by leaders of rebels in Homs and the military council of the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA) states that the operation began on Monday at 20:00 “as a response to cruel murders and barbarian crimes committed by Bashar Assad regime.”
It is said that FSA attacked “all checkpoints of governmental force structures in towns and villages to provoke severe fights.” The operation “Volcano in Damascus – earthquake in Syria” is described in the statements as “the first strategic stage for making the whole country disobedient.” At the same time, some information agencies reported that fights involved heavy weapons took place in several districts of Damascus.
According to the mass media, shooting is heard in the center of the city, and the governmental army launched heavy armor to the district of Midan which is inhabited by Sunni and turned into the base of the opposition. Fights are lasting for several days in the capital, and Assad’s forces cannot take the situation under control. The International Committee of the Red Cross estimated the situation as a civil war. Some experts believe that the ICRC made the step to establish further legal basement for bringing to court military criminals – probably the current Syrian leadership, as the West blames it for the crisis. At the same time, President Bashar Assad himself admitted that the country found itself in the situation of a war. However, his words from the address to a new Syrian government – “We are in the situation of a war. In this situation all our activities in all spheres should be directed at victory in the war” – mean foreign interference rather than an internal conflict. Nevetheless, official Damascus continues stating that it fights against “militants from abroad” or at least supported materially by foreign intelligence services.
The Syrian opposition movement Brothers Muslims understood fights in Damascus as a sign of soon collapse of the regime of Bashar Assad. The opposition activists urged citizens to build barricades and attack armors of the governmental army.
The fact that the balance of forces is changing not in favor of President is felt by the ruling elite. Another alarming signal for Assad was desertion of the Syrian ambassador in Iraq, Navaf Fares. Fares immediately criticized Assad heavily. The former ambassador stated that the regime of Assad used chemical weapon against the opposition and was ready to do it again if necessary, BBC reported. Moreover, Fares said that the Syrian authorities committed explosions in the country under support of militants from Al Qaeda.
Assad’s generals ran from him too, more than 20 people have already deserted. The most painful strike was desertion of General Manaf Tlas who was very close to Bashar Assad. Another unpleasant surprise was brought by General Adnan Silu, the head of the chemical weapon program. All these cases weaken positions of Assad and his supporters.
At the same time it is obvious that desertion of top officials is not connected with suddenly appeared disagreement with strict policy of the Syrian leader. If it was so, current VIP-deserters should do it long ago. The internal Syrian conflict is lasting for more than a year, and Bashar Assad was always harsh toward the opposition. But in those days suppression of the rebellion seemed to be solvable. But today some of top deserters strive for positions in the new Syrian government which will be composed after resignation of Assad.
However, at the moment Bashar Assad is still president of Syria, and the opposition hasn’t managed to destroy the current regime yet. Moreover, Assad still can rely on a big part of the population – on Alavis and Christians. At the same time, the former ambassador Fares and General Tlas are Sunni. This factor played a big role in changing their positions. But the major part of the military elite is composed by Alavis who will support the regime of Assad further. Its main foreign political partners – Russia and Iran – are far from abandoning it. Tehran supports it by armament, while Russia together with China prevents military intervention into Syria.
As the result absolutely different views of Russia and the West on settlement of the Syrian crisis put possibility of the settlement to a distant box. The US and their allies began the open information war against Russia. Commenting messages by the Syrian opposition on new numerous victims of the governmental military operations, the Western politicians emphasize that Moscow prevents all efforts to adopt an effective resolution against Bashar Assad. Moscow responds that responsibility for such a position by the Kremlin rests with the West which provoked “the crisis of trust” by abusing the UN SC resolution on Libya.
Nobody can say how the crisis of trust will be settled. However, it seemed the West has no intention to commit intervention to Syria without the UN resolution in the nearest future. At the same time the West will continue acting in Syria by-passing Russia. It is doubtful whether the strategy is effective, but it certainly is sanguineous.
