David Stepanyan, Yerevan, exclusive to VK
Results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia clearly will make some changes in the foreign policy agenda of the South Caucasus. Given that the pragmatic businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili is very different from the emotional Mikhail Saakashvili, the chances that these adjustments will be of sober socio-economic nature are very high. In general, today both Russia, Iran and Turkey and Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia itself are interested in these changes.
Of course, with the victory of Ivanishvili’s team Moscow will not rush headlong into contacts with Tbilisi. The U.S. is clearly not going to abandon Georgia, considering how much it invests in this country. Today, however, Tbilisi as an irritant in relations between Russia and the U.S. is not needed neither to Washington nor to Moscow. The opposition in Georgia is independent and is not under the influence of Russia or any other foreign players, and Moscow in this context can hardly have any opportunity to change the strategic choice of Tbilisi. Therefore, regardless of which political party is in power in Georgia, Tbilisi’s priority in foreign policy will remain unchanged and irreversible. However, the decline of tension in Russian-Georgian relations benefits both Russia and Georgia and throughout the region and even the West. Armenia can play a significant role in this issue. Yerevan has opportunities and potential for this. The opening of the checkpoint of Verkhny Lars that neither Moscow nor Tbilisi previously did not want to open could be a good example.
Vehicular traffic on the road from Georgia to Russia is restored, and first of all it was necessary to Yerevan. The Foreign Ministry of Armenia conducted lengthy negotiations with both the Georgian and the Russian Foreign Ministry. Another thing is that the power in Armenia is so mired in internal political swamp that foreign policy priorities and programs are not in the center of the attention. Yerevan, once proud of its complementary policies, began to forget the simple truth that foreign policy is the continuation of the internal policy.
Hopes for positive impulses were also sounded in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali. According to the Secretary of the Security Council of Abkhazia Stanislav Lakoba, Abkhazia cannot help being interested in the events occurring in neighboring Georgia, the more so in the "Georgian Dream" there are less hysterical and quite sane people with whom it is possible to talk. "If we get to a peace agreement, it will be a breakthrough in the Abkhaz-Georgian relations. Some outstanding representatives of the "Georgian Dream" were not opposed to talking with Abkhazia as with the party of the conflict and did not exclude the independence of Abkhazia", - Lakoba said. So far, Tehran, Baku and Ankara are silent, apparently waiting for further developments.
For Iran, Georgia is of great interest due to the facilities of military infrastructure being constructed in its territory. First of all, it is a newly built concrete autobahn Tbilisi-Batumi with American funding, the length of which has already exceeded one hundred kilometers. From this highway American planes could easily take off and fly in any direction desired. Given the growing tension in US-Iranian relations and the stubborn refusal of Iran to abandon its nuclear program, the present position of Tbilisi in this issue will clearly not be the least significant for both Iran and the United States. Therefore, Tehran should experience overt interest to the political game in Tbilisi.
Ankara and Baku to Georgia is of interest in terms of development of infrastructure projects linking Turkey with Azerbaijan, since all Turkish exports to Azerbaijan and vice versa goes through Georgia and today, in fact, there is no alternative to this way.
As for Armenia, Georgia is of strategic importance for it, so any destabilization in Georgia may lead to undesirable consequences. 08.08.08 War clearly demonstrated the importance of maintaining peace in this country for Armenia, which lost in those days the last land connection to the outside world. Ivanishvili is considering the restoration of rail and road links with Abkhazia, which is of great interest not only for Armenia but also for Russia and Turkey, because it will essentially increase their turnover. Turkish manufacturers have no direct overland route to enter the Russian market. If this statement of Ivanishvili goes beyond public relations campaign and becomes a reality, this will be the beginning of a new transformation of the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Abkhaz section of the railway, extending from the bus-stop platform Psou (the Abkhaz-Russian border) to the stopping platform Ingur (Abkhaz-Georgian border) - 221 km, is closed for Armenia and Georgia from August 14, 1992, after the explosion of the railway bridge over the Inguri River separating Georgia and Abkhazia. As a result, at this time, the capabilities of the Armenian South Caucasian Railway located in the concession management of Russian Railways are limited to transporting passengers and goods in Armenia and to the ports of Poti and Batumi of Georgia. Only one station of the four play-stations of the SCR to Georgia, Ayrum-Sadakhlo, is in operation.
In the case of restoration of the part of the Abkhaz railway, through Ayrum-Sadakhlo Armenia will be able to continue the train service from Poti to the Krasnodar region and beyond. Armenian leadership will put aside ephemeral projects of the construction of Iran-Armenia railway and opening of the rusted road section to Turkey. Instead of this, Yerevan should at least show interest to the proposal of Georgian politic. It is essential that if Abkhazia takes interest in this proposal (the chances for it, given Moscow's interest, are quite high) Armenia's road transport corridor North-South under construction will also have a better chance of being continued through Abkhazia. Thus, Armenia will almost come back to rail and motor transportation of the Soviet period, and this will stimulate the economy of Yerevan. This in turn will be beneficial not only for Armenia, but also for Russia, Abkhazia, Turkey and Georgia. We can only hope that Prime Minister Ivanishvili will not abandon pragmatism and prudence of businessman Ivanishvili.
