Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
The situation over the planned airport in Nagorno-Karabakh which caused a sharp reaction from Baku is involving more and more participants. The Azerbaijani information agency APA cites independent diplomatic sources as saying that Azerbaijan and Turkey have achieved an agreement on closing their airspace for Armenia if the airport in Nagorno-Karabakh is launched into operation.
Several Turkish PMs developed a project of a corresponded resolution in the parliament. An agreement between civil aviation administrative structures of Azerbaijan and Turkey was reached, according to the agency. It is interesting that this information spread a week ago wasn’t disposed either by Baku or Ankara: it means purposeful stove piping – a direct signal to Yerevan. Closing of the Turkish air space would be a serious challenge for Armenia.
It seems Armenia understood the signal and decided to relocate the missile defense system S-300 to the Azerbaijani border. The analysis of recent pictures made from space shows changes which might seriously influence the missile defense situation in the Caucasus.
The military analysis center located in the US, IMINT, published satellite pictures of Russian and Armenian missile defense systems in the region. “The pictures show appearance of new S-300 complexes in Armenia and the Georgian province of Abkhazia. Both places of dislocation have a great potential for launching,” the expert Sean O’Connor says. Turan reports that till 2008 Armenia imported components of at least three S-300s and changed old S-125 for defense of Yerevan. Russia located two more S-300s in the province of Syunik near Goris and Kagnut in 7 km from Nagorno-Karabakh in 2010. “The systems use the mobile radar 5N63S and the low height radar,” the same source notes.
S-300s situated near Nagorno-Karabakh can cover the airport near Khankendi as a supplement to S-125 situated there. Moreover, such location of S-300 covers the existing air gap and enables Armenia to block the air communication between Azerbaijan and Nakhichyvan.
The situation over the airport might cause escalation of the conflict and even resumption of hostilities. If Azerbaijan tried to intercept a plane of separatists in the Karabakh sky by means of fighter aircrafts, Armenia would use its missile defense system and a full-scaled military operation would begin.
The situation is worsened by the fact that presidential elections will take place in both republics next year. None of leaders want to yield in such a delicate issue, considering sensitive perception of everything connected with Nagorno-Karabakh by both sides. Operation of the KArabakh airport without negative consequences for Armenia means a failure of Azerbaijan; yielding to Azerbaijan and Turkey by Armenia means another slap in the Armenian authorities’ face.
Speaking about the legal aspect of the problem, all trumps belong to Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh is not recognized even by Armenia and conduction of flights by the separatist regime violates the air space of Azerbaijan which is legally recognized by the international society.
