Risks for the Armenian authorities

Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Less than three months remain till the presidential elections in Armenia. Today the political forces analyze their advantages and possible risks. The main competitors are the authorities represented by President Serge Sargsyan and the party Prosperous Armenia headed by tycoon Gagik Tsarukyan. Internal political prospects can be predicted after the analysis of the system’s stability in three directions – economic, internal political, and foreign political risks.
Economic risks
The discussed state budget project for 2013 is heavily criticized by the opposition. According to the most conservative estimate of the IMF, 35% of Armenian economy is in shadow; Armenian experts are sure that this figure achieves 50%. The other important consequence is paying the foreign debt which is more than $400 million – it is a huge sum which is twofold greater than the sum allocated to paying the debt in 2012. Many experts believe that the government will take new credits for serving the current debt. These suggestions were confirmed by the deputy financing minister Vardan Aramyan. Negotiations on getting a new credit are going on, but either the EU or Russia hasn’t given a positive answer.
One more economic risk is a negative business environment: despite the government’s statement on development of minor and medium business, in fact this business is oppressed in favor of major monopolists.
The current economic risks may enforce after the growth of prices on Russian gas, which is planned since April 1, 2013, according to certain sources. Gas prices growing, allocation of huge sums for debt service, and monopolization of economy which causes migration will create tension in the socio-economic sphere. To resist the risks the government should have necessary reserves which are few. The state has to collect taxes properly and reduce the so-called “shadow segment” for providing these reserves. It means damaging interests of tycoons who are closely connected with the authorities.
Therefore, the socio-economic situation will remain tense, but we cannot say that it is hopeless and can cause a social burst. Most probably, the system’s stability will maintain in the socio-economic sphere.
Foreign political risks
The dominating directions of the Armenian foreign policy are settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenian-Turkish relations, and relations between Armenia and the key players in the region – the USA, Russia, and the EU.
Tension remains on the firing line in the Karabakh conflict, but it became permanent. A possibility of reviving wide-scale military activities is thought to be tiny by many Armenian experts. The results of the elections will hardly cause escalation of the conflict.
Regarding the second direction of the foreign policy, as the Armenian-Turkish border is closed in Turkey’s sole discretion, there will be no surprises. Moreover, a Russian military base which provides Armenian security is situated new the border in west Armenia and plays an important role in providing stability in the region.
As for foreign players, Brussels and Washington support the administration of Serge Sargsyan. They are very interested in victory of the current authorities. Firstly, Sargsyan promised and signed the Armenian-Turkish protocols in October 2009. Secondly, he has many times stated on his readiness to sign the Madrid Principles of the Karabakh settlement. The solution of both problems is connected with the West’s striving for diminishing Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus. Signing of the Madrid Principles opens a way to the settlement of the conflict and weakens Russia’s influence. Key importance (for the US especially) is gained by the protocols on normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations, including settlement of diplomatic relations and opening communications. Fulfillment of the protocols will weaken Russian influence on Armenia. Considering this fact, Washington and Brussels try to hold Sargsyan in power. All international institutes which are controlled by Western countries will support him in the coming elections.
At the same time, the position of Russia, one of the key players in the region, toward the Armenian authorities is still dim. Moreover, it seems Russia doesn’t want to be involved into the process at all or at least distances itself from it.
Ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2007 and the presidential elections in 2008, Russia expressed political support of Sargsyan. Today we cannot see this. Long time has passed since any important Russian figures visited Yerevan. In late summer it was discussed that President of Russia Vladimir Putin would visit Armenia. However, it didn’t happen.
Internal political risks
The Republican Party of Armenia is a quite strong organization which controls force structures, the government, the parliament, and has huge financial capacities. At the same time, today Armenia experiences a tendency to forming an alternative pole to RPA – it includes Prosperous Armenia and the Armenian National Congress. Probably the Dashnaktsutyn Party will join these forces. This alternative pole can present a unified candidate, and most probably he would be a tough competitor for Serge Sargsyan in the elections. Nobody believes in social polls in Armenia; their results often disturb orientation in the internal political situation. However, the social attitude to the current authorities is expressed in activeness of social initiatives, numerous protest demonstrations near the government building, the Presidential Palace, which are connected with the authorities’ policy and unfair court verdicts.
According to observers, Sargsyan has the biggest anti-ranking among politicians. In the situation when the alternative pole is being formed and the social support is so low, account on “dead souls” (about 500 thousand votes of citizens who are not in the country at the moment), which is normal for RPA, can lead to serious accidents. If the authorities ascribe a half a million votes to them, it can explode the society.
Speaking about internal political risks for the system, the open use of damaging information should be noted; it is the first time in the Armenian political life. Until now damaging information has never been used openly in election campaigns. There were only threats to use it, but the authorities broke the tradition. I mean damaging information against the former foreign minister, the member of Prosperous Armenia Vardan Oskanyan. The power opened Pandora’s Box by the incident; and probably soon serious damaging information against the authorities will appear.
It should be realized that there are more participants in the presidential elections than in the parliamentary elections, as voters understand clearly whom they elect and what for. Moreover, 200-250 thousand voters are labor migrants who come to Armenia for winter. The majority of these people will hardly support the power which forced these people leave the country in a search for job.
Nevertheless, the system is relevantly stable in all three directions. However, it is difficult to say whether the stability will maintain in the certain extreme situation.
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