"Armenian society is still very far from Europe"

Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan, exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

The head of the analytical center "European Geopolitical Forum" (Brussels), Marat Terterov, told VK about the prospects for European integration and membership of the republic in the projected Eurasian Union.

- Armenian society discusses the prospect of joining the Customs Union and later the Eurasian Union initiated by Russia. What could participation in such large-scale integration projects provide Yerevan?

- To assess the prospects of Armenia, I would like to see the project of the creation of the Eurasian space in a more specific and developed form. Now I still do not see the specific regulatory framework to implement and realize this project. We hear only political statements. In these circumstances, expecting clear foreign policy priorities from Yerevan is quite premature. However, I would like to see the rapid development of this project, as a supporter of the idea of a slight similarity of the Soviet Union in the post-Soviet space. The appearance of such a union can bring a lot of positive factors for the development of post-Soviet countries, in which the collapse of the Soviet Union caused a lot of ethnic, religious, territorial and social problems. With the creation of such a union some of these problems will dissolve.

- But the example of the European Union does not look very encouraging ...

- I would not say so. Belgium is also, according to some experts, today on the verge of collapse. Bloodshed, of course, will not take place, but the question of who will be in power in Brussels will be quite difficult. If even small Belgium is divided into two parts, it will not leave the European Union, the two regions will still remain in the European space. Scotland and Catalonia are good examples of this. If we saw strong institutions and foundations of the Eurasian Union, we could compare the Eurasian Union to the experience of both the integration and disintegration of the EU. It is also important that the creation of such a union would benefit Europe itself, as for the EU it would be much easier to work with the countries of the former Soviet Union in such a form.

- Do you think the emerging conclusion of the Association Agreement between the EU and Armenia is a step towards European integration of the republic? What does Europe expect from the agreement?

- The Association Agreement is part of the overall process of the normalization of the situation in the South Caucasus. It will deepen the relationship between the region and Europe, given its economic orientation. Through the agreement Europe tries to bring to the South Caucasus more stability and rule of law, as well as discussions between the states of the region. The prospects of implementing such an agreement are still unclear, because there are some obstacles to this. The European Parliament is not only a department of pluralism, but the department of lobbying in Brussels. This means that, for the approval of any project developed by the European Commission, it must pass through the European Parliament, which looks quite seriously at many sensitive issues in the post-Soviet countries. First of all, we are talking about human rights violations in the former Soviet Union. Therefore, the European Parliament raises to Armenia issues related to the election and non-compliance of laws to their aspirations. These factors affect the prospects for signing the Association Agreement; it has not been invented by Europeans, it is a reality which to some extent prevents the approximation of such countries as Armenia to Europe. Therefore, this process will be quite long.

- In Armenia the ruling Republican Party and President Sargsyan are considered to be supporters of European integration. How valid is this opinion?

- Armenia is Russia's strategic partner in the Caucasus, a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and there is an impression that Armenia is under Russia's strategic umbrella. However, some people in NATO, dealing with the South Caucasus, sincerely believe that Armenia has excellent relations with the alliance, a number of partnership programs, different types of soft cooperation. These same people believe that Armenia, unlike Georgia, stating its desire to join the alliance, is a good example of a state which can work with both Russia and Western hard military power. With regard to European integration at the economic and political level, the example of Armenia-NATO dialogue is very interesting, because for post-Soviet Armenia it is difficult to press the "delete" button to Russia. I do not think that such a wish in the power elite of Armenia can be seen, given that the majority of the population in Armenia does not reside permanently, living in Russia. The Armenian diaspora in the West is represented by a totally different type of people, united by the Armenian idea, the language, etc. These people do not understand the approach of the local audience to a number of fundamental questions. Armenia is not Europe, North America or Australia. This may sound contradictory, but in Brussels it is easy to sell the idea that Armenia is Europe. I have participated in many scientific and political debates, in which western Armenians easily pushed the idea according to which Armenia is part of Europe, the EU, and it should be in the European family. And Russia is not part of this family. This diaspora position, in my opinion, even repels Armenia from Europe. Armenia is Armenia - a post-Soviet republic. This is not France and not Western Europe.

- Do you mean that the question is not in the authorities but in Armenian society?

- Armenian society is very far from European integration. However, I do not believe in the sincerity of the intentions of the authorities to integrate Armenia into Europe. Some statements about the desire of integration are not enough. Declaring this desire is necessary to the leadership of Armenia as a small country. The Baltic countries feel calm in the EU, relying on the "soft" and military strength of the Europeans much more than on the same factors in Russia. Armenia and other post-Soviet countries should strive for political alliances, it is a vital necessity. The exceptions are countries with an energy sector: Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. In this vein, the statement of the Armenian government's intention of European integration is normal. The system of the EU is based on law-abiding, and voicing the intention to integrate into the system, the Armenian authorities have made it clear that you can safely invest heavily in a country where there is stability and obedience to the law. This shows that Armenia is not a cowboy territory. In this context, the government of Armenia is simply obliged from time to time to voice such statements.

We see how Ukraine and the IMF play "cat and mouse", because it is unclear who is paying today for Russian gas for Ukraine - the IMF or "Gazprombank". In view of this situation between Kiev and Moscow and Western donors a certain opacity is established. This became possible as a result of the weakness of Ukraine as a state. In the case of Armenia and the former USSR, the first obstacle of this kind is the oligarchic system of the economy, because entry into any international organization involves the destruction of such a system.