Kelbadjar and Lachin

The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia will discuss issues related to the withdrawal of troops from the occupied Azerbaijani regions of Kelbadjar and Lachin at a meeting, which will be held on the sidelines of session of the OSCE Council of Foreign ministers. According to the Azerbaijani foreign minister, Elmar Mamedyarov, this issue is of great importance with regards to peaceful settlement of the conflict, "as the withdrawal of the Armenian troops from five other regions of Azerbaijan is a done deal and doesn't need further discussion".

Armenian officials on their part haven't commented on this "agreement" yet. Moreover Armenian authorities prefer to keep silent regarding these negotiations, presumably lest they be accused of "surrendering national interests".

Meanwhile Mamedyarov’s on the withdrawal of troops received this response from the deputy foreign minister of Armenia, Shavarsh Kocharyan : "There will be no withdrawal of forces from any regions until Azerbaijan recognizes the independence of Nagorno Karabakh and withdraws its troops from the occupied territories of Karabakh," he said. 

This statement raised several questions. First of all talks about an Azerbaijani occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh make no sense, as there are no Azerbaijani troops in the region and this territory belongs to Azerbaijan. Second, this statement sounds even more confusing from the Armenian authorities, who have welcomed the plan of the OSCE Minsk Group announced during the G8 summit in Canada, which provides for the liberation of Azerbaijani regions and only afterwards the determination of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status.

As concerns the liberation of seven Azerbaijani regions, this issue shouldn't cause any misunderstandings. The plan proposed by the intermediary states provides for the immediate liberation of five Azerbaijani regions and the withdrawal of troops from two others at a later date. The plan even gives details on the deadline for the withdrawal of the Armenian forces - 2015. Kelbadjar and Lachin are located right in between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, thus Baku expressed a readiness to provide open transport links between Armenia and the region populated with the Armenians. Moreover, Azerbaijan accepted the proposal, which provides for peacekeepers placement in Nagorno-Karabakh in order to ensure security for the Armenian population along with the Azerbaijani refugees in the region. And what is more important, Azerbaijan is ready to grant Nagorno-Karabakh a temporary status under the guarantees of the Madrid principles.

It seems the deal is done and only specific details need further discussion. Yet, by all appearances, Armenia is not willing to accept this plan. Yerevan has not yet commented on the revised variant of the Madrid principals, announced by the presidents.

There is every chance that negotiations on the issue of the occupied territories will not result in anything substantial. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan can't stand up against pressure by the Armenian diaspora and internal forces, which hold rallies following any sign of rapprochement with Azerbaijan or Turkey. To enrage the Armenian diaspora would be political suicide for Serzh Sargsyan, and this is the explanation of the unclear position of Yerevan.

 
Elmira Tariverdieva, Baku. Exclusively for VK.