Last week in the South Caucasus

Author: Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK

Last week was busy for all the countries of the South Caucasus, but the most dynamic political process continues to develop in Georgia, despite the fact that neighboring Armenia has entered the home stretch of the 2013 presidential campaign.

The main intrigue in modern Georgian politics is the confrontation between Mikhail Saakashvili and Bidzina Ivanishvili, which appears literally in all areas, from Tbilisi to Davos. Each far-reaching statement by the leader of "Georgian Dream" meets a tough rebuke from the current President of Georgia. And, above all, this concerns the subject of Russia.

In his speech at the Davos forum, Ivanishvili confirmed that  European integration is a top priority of his country. However, not this declaration but the first meeting between Ivanishvili and Medvedev in the Davos area caused so much attention of the international media. However, handshake and exchange of greetings can hardly be called a real meeting. But on the other hand, there is also information that the first full meeting between the delegations of Russia and Georgia will be held at the PACE in April 2013.

While Ivanishvili tasted "Russian breakfast" at the Davos forum, Mikhail Saakashvili addressed the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. It must be said that once again the Georgian leader's speech turned into a show. In a relatively short period of time the Georgian president could mention a list of all the successes of the "Rose Revolution", which, of course, were achieved only because of his responsive government.

Of course, the Russian delegation spoiled this holiday by its self-promotion, reminding about the prison scandal and other failures of Georgian democracy. But we should keep in mind that the PACE tribune, which discussed the report "The war between Georgia and Russia" is not a friendly platform for the Russian position. Therefore many MPs still see the situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the light of the Georgian estimates, more precisely, with the amendment to the current internal political conflict in Georgia and through the prism of personal assessments of the Georgian president. But has anybody said that after the presidential election Mikheil Saakashvili will leave the big politics completely?

As for neighboring Armenia, on January 21 the campaign for the election of the president was officially launched. Unlike previous elections, there is no intrigue. No one doubts the victory of Serzh Sargsyan. No one doubts that he will get more than 70% of the votes, far ahead of all other candidates for the presidency. 

The lack of real suspense and competition is felt by the Armenian population, which, according to some projections, can partly ignore the vote. Visual propaganda in Yerevan and other cities of Armenia is limited to a minimum; these are mostly billboards depicting the incumbent president. The reason is clear: any election campaign is quite expensive , and many candidates simply do not have the means for its implementation in the full format,.

According to some local experts, non-participation in the election campaign of the main oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan negatively affects the actual course of the campaign. People still feel that a real chance to form a bipartisan model that could finally emerge, if in the second round Tsarukyan and acting head of state had competed, is not used, but no one doubts the victory of Serzh Sargsyan without the use of administrative resources.

Great attention in Armenia was caused by the visit of Bidzina Ivanishvili, who said that Georgia will make every effort to restore the rail link "Abkhazia - Georgia - Armenia". However, these words of the Prime Minister of Georgia were disavowed by Mikhail Saakashvili, who said that the Prime Minister did not take into account the geopolitical interests of the country, and the issue of transport links can be resolved only after the de-occupation of Abkhazia. But, despite this rivalry, Armenia is optimistic about the prospects for further improvement of relations with Georgia.

 At the same time, the forces for the expansion of the European integration field became active. At the very least, their information activity in Armenia greatly exceeds the few resources that seek to bring objective information about the possibilities of Eurasian integration to the people of the Republic.

As for the situation in Azerbaijan, the electoral campaign slowly but surely begins. Azerbaijani opposition has not been able to agree on a single candidate, and it is already clear that the elections, in addition to the candidate of the Public Chamber, will be attended by several candidates.

One of them is known. This is Isa Gambar. It is also obvious that the Public Chamber will take advantage of current trends in its new actions - for instance, actions of public protest against corruption and the bullying in the army.

However, we should keep in mind that a large part of the protesters are not direct opposition supporters and do not use any political slogans. Therefore, one gets the feeling that the leaders of the opposition are trying to score points, artificially attributing to themselves rallies that took place on very different grounds.

This fact suggests that the main contender for the presidency, incumbent President Ilham Aliyev, can hardly face serious competition from "systemic opposition", and the main task of the government of Azerbaijan will be localizing natural protests, such as those that took place in Baku in protest against the bullying in the army.

The Azerbaijani leadership exhibits a high level of activity in the international area. In particular, Ilham Aliyev addressed the Davos Economic Forum, inviting investors to invest in the non-energy sector of Azerbaijan, especially in the field of information technology and services. In Davos President of Azerbaijan gave an interview to CNN, where he responded to a reporter's question about a possible connection of BP with "Rosneft", allegedly in order to put pressure on Azerbaijan in the energy sector.

Response of the President of Azerbaijan has been designed in a diplomatic way. At least, according to Aliyev, it is unlikely that BP, working in Azerbaijan, will simultaneously implement some missions with other participants of the energy market.

As for the discussion of the report on Azerbaijan in PACE, then, first, the parliamentarians have made just two alternative reports, and this already shows the ambiguity of the estimates by the European structures in this key South Caucasian republic. Secondly, the report by Strasser, which caused a lot of discussions, provoked a heated debate in which the head of the Committee for CIS Affairs Leonid Slutsky took part and commented on the assessment of the report in an extremely negative light.

However, it can be assumed that the closer the time of the elections in Azerbaijan is, the more powerful the pressure on the leadership of the country by certain international organizations will be.