Author: Alexei Vlasov, Director General of Center for Political Studies "North-South"
On the night from Thursday to Friday the electoral campaign in Armenia followed a qualitatively new scenario. A presidential candidate, Payrura Hayrikian, was attacked: he was shot in the shoulder in the center of Yerevan on Tpagrichneri Street, near the house of his parents. Doctors assess the condition of the victim as moderate but not life-threatening.
Almost immediately after the attack on the candidate Parliament Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan has not excluded that due to the attempt the elections may be postponed. According to the Constitution of Armenia, in the event of insurmountable obstacles for a candidate for president the election should be postponed for two weeks. The attack clearly stands out from the logic of the presidential campaign, even though last week it was significantly accelerated in terms of the internal dynamics. Candidates started (finally) making sweeping statements widely discussed in the local media. Another thing is that the quality of these applications is not always decent.
Thus, an extensive interview to IA Regnum was given by the most controversial candidate for 2013 - Andreas Ghukasyan, who announced in the last month of a hunger strike to protest against the "inevitable" election fraud and abuse of power by the candidate number one. However, Armenian voters have not heard some special, breakthrough proposals, and all the things were fairly predictable. Ghukasyan demanded to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh, to abandon the dialogue with Turkey in its current format and to turn Armenia into an independent and neutral state.
However, against the background of the standard campaign materials presented in the media by other candidates, Mr. Ghukasyan could attract at least a temporary interest (besides, hunger is a scandalous step). But the problem is that none of the local experts believes that he, like most other opponents of Sargsyan, can prevent the number one candidate to win a comfortable victory in the first round. It turns out that the news from the candidates is literally invented to create the appearance of intrigue.
Most of the contenders for the presidency prefer to build their campaign largely on criticism of the incumbent president. Former Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan is especially active: he gave a detailed analysis of pre-election promises of the Armenian president and noted they were of "poor quality." In this context, he said, it is not clear "why people should re-elect Serzh Sargsyan for the presidency".
It turns out that the criticism of the President of Armenia is also a form of self-promotion. Another issue is that such lively debates have no impact on voters' preferences, and recent polls clearly show that Sargsyan will score about 66-70% of the vote. His closest pursuer Hovannisian hardly steps over the barrier of 10%. That is, there is no intrigue.
In an interview to VK a local expert suggested that the non-participation ANC, PA and "Dashnaktsutiun" in the upcoming election is not a boycott. This statement seems rather doubtful. Besides, Armenian analysts do not agree on the extent to which the election campaign will affect the turnout on the day of election.
An important event of last week was the meeting of military leaders from Russia and Armenia, Seyran Ohanyan and Sergei Shoigu, in Yerevan. During the visit of the Russian delegation issues of military-technical cooperation were discussed. Judging by the Armenian media, Yerevan is, in general, satisfied with the results of the negotiations.
It was officially announced that the topic of the Russian military base and its maintaining was discussed at the meeting of Ministers. Note that the Azerbaijani media also were quite restrained commenting on the visit of Shoigu, making an emphasis on the planned nature of recent agreements between Yerevan and Moscow. Along with the defense minister, CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha also arrived in Yerevan, who during his visit, in particular, said that, in his opinion, Azerbaijan will not shoot down civilian planes flying to the airport of Stepanakert (Khankendi). Note, however, that on 18 January the government of Azerbaijan approved the rules of using air space, which, in principle, admit such a possibility.
Actually, if you compare the rhetoric of Shoigu to this of Bordyuzha at the meetings with Armenian partners, it is notably that CSTO leadership was much more liberal in its comments, while the Russian defense minister showed the greatest caution and obviously avoided sharp issues at the press conference.
In Georgia, the past week has been relatively quiet in terms of the opposition in the country. Still, local media have focused on the new phase of the dialogue with Moscow, which is gradually getting clearer shape. Thus, it became known that Russia has agreed to issue visas to members of the Georgian delegation traveling to Moscow for talks on the supply of Georgian wine.
Moreover, the list of official negotiators, which will include the Minister of Agriculture of Georgia and the special representative for contacts with Russia Zurab Abashidze, is already defined. Tbilisi expects that the outcome of this trip can be the removal of the ban on the supply of Georgian wines. At least, the chief sanitary doctor of Russia Gennady Onishchenko said on January 29 that he saw no major problems in the return of Georgian wines, especially since, in his words, "the Georgian wine industry over the years has made a big step forward in its development."
In addition, the gradual convergence through the confessional dialogue is continuing. We are talking about the visit of the Catholicos-Patriarch of All Georgia Ilia II to Moscow. Georgian Patriarch called this visit historical, and Russian media have detailed the coverage of the visit, and the comments were mostly moderate, but positive. Catholicos-Patriarch visited Moscow at the invitation of Patriarch Kirill on the occasion of awarding him the prize of the International Foundation for the Unity of Orthodox Christian Nations. Patriarch Kirill gave the relics of St. Alexander Nevsky to Georgian Patriarch. During his visit to Moscow, Ilia II was received by President Vladimir Putin, visited several churches, Trinity Lavra of St. Sergius, participated in worship services, held a meeting with the Georgian diaspora in Russia. At the meeting in Moscow the Georgian diaspora was particularly active, enthusiastically welcoming Ilia II. At the same time, the Patriarch in his speech mentioned the problem of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but it cannot be said that this story was the main topic at the meeting of the two churches.
Meanwhile, Mikhail Saakashvili again commented negatively on the possibility of restoring the Abkhazian section of the railway. Obviously, this issue really bothers the Georgian president, and at the first opportunity, he uses it to highlight the incompetence of the leader of "Georgian Dream" and his inability to deal with complex regional realities. It is noticeable that the Georgian president is increasingly turning in their speeches to the "new geopolitical situation," which, in his opinion, might tie the closer alliance with Baku or the transit towards rapprochement with Yerevan, and after that - the complete capitulation to Moscow (if Ivanishvili continues to promote a project to restore the railway). Azerbaijan is actually not interested in the project, but the official Baku maintains cautious line in assessing the internal political situation in Georgia, rightly believing that it is an internal matter of the neighbors.
Huge interest has been caused by School of Journalism in Tbilisi announced by the Center for Political Studies "North-South", which is launched simultaneously with the presentation of the expert report on the prospects of Russian-Georgian relations.
Meanwhile, a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan was ended by the predictable result, or rather, lack of it. The parties agreed to continue the dialogue, but the meeting did not add any specifics on the Karabakh conflict to their relations.
However, none of the experts seem to have expected a different version of events. Western analysts repeated, commenting on the outcome of the meeting, different variations on the theme of Russian proverb about abad peace and a good brawl.
Some Armenian media reported on some progress in the negotiation process: it is about the alleged concessions on the issue of the international airport in Karabakh. But judging by the comments of experts, there are no major changes in the positions of the parties on this crucial question.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Embassy issued a statement on the January events in Ismayilli. It says, in part: "The U.S. government is closely monitoring the current situation in Azerbaijan and expresses its concern." As analysts expected, given the approaching date of the presidential election, Washington will show a growing interest in the situation in this key country in the region. Against the background of the increasing activity of Morningstar, an optimistic thing for Russian-Azerbaijani relationship is that the deputy of Milli Majlis Zahid Oruj at the first plenary meeting of the spring session of the Parliament of Azerbaijan has placed new emphasis on assessment of relations between Azerbaijan and Russia: "In recent years, in social networking and online media there are attempts to create tension in the Azerbaijani-Russian relations. All issues related to the Qabala radar station, the developments in the Caspian region and in Armenia, and protest processes in Azerbaijan, are being linked with Russia", he said. "Certain circles want to oppose Azerbaijan to Russia, which cannot in any case be allowed. I myself at one time was one of those who seriously criticized Russia's position. However, it is recognized that over the past period Azerbaijan, thanks to Heydar Aliyev and Ilham Aliyev, has managed to keep the Azerbaijani-Russian relations in the right direction", Orudj said.
