Last week in the South Caucasus (February 11-17)

Author: Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK

Over the past week, Armenian society concentrated on the presidential elections. The protracted fluctuations of Mr. Hayrikyan about whether to postpone the date of the campaign or to leave it as it is, of course, added some intrigue, but have almost no effect on the balance of power between the major presidential candidates. According to Hayrikyan, his final decision not to postpone the election date was motivated by his desire to avoid damage to "Armenian democracy" in general because of illegal actions against him. Local experts noted with irony that "the Armenian democracy" can be as fickle as Hayrikyan himself, who four times changed his position on the postponement of the presidential election.

Reports that the gunmen who attempted assassination of a candidate were arrested was surprising only because of unexpected alacrity of Armenian security officials, who quickly identified the suspects. Curiously, these attackers for some time worked for another presidential candidate Vardan Sedrakyan. The reasons which prompted Khachatur Pogosyan and Samvel Harutyunyan to take this step remain unclear, but after the decision of Hayrikian to consent to the holding of elections on time, it can be assumed that the story of the assassination attempt would quickly descend from the first pages of the Armenian media.

But the attention of the local press was attracted to the decision of the Armenian opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan to launch the "modernization" of the main opposition project. Recall that a few days ago, Ter-Petrosyan, along with his supporters, appealed to the Ministry of Justice of Armenia with the application for registration of the new party, which, however, will retain the same name, "Armenian National Congress." Not all local experts have found a clear explanation why exactly Ter-Petrosian needs such formal changes - from congress to party.

Though, the first President of Armenia said that this decision was overdue and was convinced that the new party would be a powerful force of social-liberal ideology. Some partners of Ter-Petrosyan, in particular, representatives of the People's Party of Armenia, expressed readiness to cooperate with the opposition leader on a par, but said they were not ready to join the new party eliminating their former party projects.

Thus, the process of consolidation of the opposition field with an eye on the post-election period is far from being over. It is also not obvious what political, social and economic platform will be used by the opposition claiming a desire to carry out the upgrade of their program.

Meanwhile, the situation around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is controversial both in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Official Baku is displeased with the actual freezing of the negotiation process and will use all diplomatic channels to encourage intermediaries to a strong position on this key issue.

At the same time, as for the conditions when the election campaign in Armenia is entering the home straight, the rhetoric of most of the presidential candidates is quite traditional for the Armenian political class, especially the part that just refers to the issues of Nagorno-Karabakh. The question whether there will be any changes in the post-election period and whether the expected winner of the presidential race will suggest a new vision of the unresolved conflict solutions remains open.

Meanwhile, head of the committee for CIS affairs of the State Duma Leonid Slutsky appealed on 12 February to join efforts to find a common denominator for the quick resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenian leadership closely follows not only Russia's response to the situation in the conflict zone. Contacts of the Armenian diplomats with representatives of the EU and Iran have intensified. Dialogue with Brussels took place within the meeting in Tbilisi on 12 February of the Foreign Ministers of the countries members of the "Eastern Partnership", where Edward Nalbandian confirmed that in September, Armenia would be ready to host the third meeting in the framework of the "Eastern Partnership". Multi-vector foreign policy of Armenia is becoming more evident, and it is likely that this trend will become dominant after 18 February.

If we abstract from the increasing amount of information, which indicates the magnitude of the internal political conflict in Georgia, and try to identify the key trends that could shape the future of this country of the South Caucasus in terms of its prospects, it should be noted that a huge role is played by the situation in the social sphere. Strikes of railway workers and miners, which took place last week, are the first signs, which may be followed by lots of protests by spring. No matter whether these are natural forms of protest action or they are inspired by some of the opposing political forces in the country.

Apparently, the growth of social discontent may be the greatest threat just for the "Georgian Dream", which defeated its opponents from UNM in the election, starting from the thesis on the failure of social and economic reforms introduced by Mikhail Saakashvili. At a time when the situation in the Georgian economy is far from optimal, so much hope can be easily replaced by no less disappointment. Politicians close to Ivanishvili understand the specificity of the current situation. The new Georgian authorities have too little time. However, in the actual conditions of dual power it is not an easy task to get out of this vicious circle. A lot of energy and effort goes into a showdown with the nearest environment of the Georgian president, apparently with an eye to the forthcoming presidential campaign of 2013. However, counter-offers of "truce" sounded by the current President of Georgia have little effect on the social and economic context. At least, the theses published in the media after the meeting between Saakashvili and leadership of the Georgian parliament predictably affected the foreign policy context - the same guarantees of the revision of foreign policy and retaining the vector of European integration as a fundamental part of international politics in Georgia. There is nothing fundamentally new.

From this point of view, there are also difficult questions for Moscow. Indeed, the issue of Georgian wines in the Russian market is slowly but surely moving forward, but the deadline for its resolution is not clear. It is clear that the new government of Georgia needs a "breakthrough project", and why would this project not be the accelerated development of the Russian-Georgian trade and economic relations?

As for Azerbaijan, the main event of the week was the President's speech at the conference on the results of the fourth year of the "State Program on socio-economic development in 2009-2013." Aliyev noted that a citizen of Azerbaijan is in the center of public policy: "We do everything for our citizens. We make efforts for our people, we build and enforce our state and want Azerbaijan to become a powerful state. Every patriotic man wants it. The stronger our state is, the quieter people feel and live in the atmosphere of security. "

Then he attacked local officials with unprecedented criticism. The President said that, in general, in the region the activities of the executive branch are positive: "But such cases have also occurred; every government official should serve the people. With the appointment of any official I note him a few key areas: development, creation, productive work, humility and service to the people. Assigning each official, I said: come, be a support to people, help them, be considerate. Sometimes I do not see it, and when I do not see it - I take action. "

Aliyev noted that in some cases, the officials look down on people, "They do not reckon with citizens, insult them, behave arrogantly. Such cases occur, and it all must be addressed. They organize great feasts, luxury weddings, anniversaries. "

His words about the inevitability of punishment for offenses committed not only by the officials but also by their family members are quite important. Azerbaijani authorities seek to restore order among the regional elites, especially after the events in Ismayilli. And it seems that this problem seems to Ilham Aliyev so significant that he chose such a rigid public denunciation in order to "bring to life" the local bureaucracy.