Author: Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK
Last week there were no scandalous events in Georgian politics, which is, frankly, not typical for this South Caucasus country. However, one episode might be the starting point for a new conflict - Investigative Service of the Ministry of Finance of Georgia on February 22 decided on the guilt of the Mayor of Tbilisi Gigi Ugulava in connection with the facts of money laundering, embezzlement and misappropriation of budgetary funds.
Thus, trends that defined acute confrontation between Mikhail Saakashvili and Bidzina Ivanishvili in recent weeks remained the same. The ruling coalition is still concentrated on the fascinating case - prosecutions of the supporters of the current president. In particular, the focus of the Georgian media was on the trial of Bacho Akhalaia. The Akhalaia brothers are considered perhaps the most dangerous people in the entourage of the President of Georgia. A number of Georgian experts believe that in the course of the trial information directly accusing Vano Merabishvili, chief patron of Akhalaia, and even Mikhail Saakashvili, may be made public. Time will tell whether it is true or not, but certainly, Bacho Akhalaia had direct access to the secrets of the previous government. Another question is whether he wants to share this "special knowledge" with someone.
Meanwhile, President of Georgia addressed to the Parliament with an open letter in which he demanded to set a date of his speech with the annual report to lawmakers. According to Saakashvili, "the head of the country is obliged to appear before the Parliament and the public, and lawmakers, according to the Constitution, should listen to the President of Georgia. Georgian President is the guarantor of the protection of the Constitution, and Parliament should ensure that it is enforced. I hope that the Georgian parliament and the public will soon get acquainted with the most important issues of the agenda of our country". However, it is unlikely that another appeal by Saakashvili was taken into account by his political opponents. Despite all attempts to build communication between the old and the new government, they are full of emotions. In fact, the Georgian president benefits from this fact appealing to the West and asking "whether it is possible to negotiate with these people for something". Someone in Washington and Brussels may find this rhetoric convincing.
Meanwhile, the new Georgian leadership is waiting for reciprocal steps by Moscow, especially the return of Georgian wines and "Borjomi" to Russia. But there is still no fundamental progress in this direction. Negotiations are continuing, and judging by the reaction of both parties, they are quite active, but achieving any concrete results, apparently, will take time. At the same time, the date of inspection of Russian experts on Georgian wineries is already scheduled. Saving the phasing of the talks inspires optimism.
But this is something for the future, and so far some Georgian experts visited some North Caucasian republics. Not all the details of the voyage are known; the only available information is about the fact that in North Ossetia, many politicians and experts perceived this visit rather ambiguously. The reaction in South Ossetia was equally nervous, though, at first glance, there is no special reason for anxiety. The visit was for informational purposes and certainly did not mean that Russia was going to "abandon" South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Statements by the Georgian NGOs were quite restrained, and it was obvious that this is nothing more than a "first attempt".
Another important event of the last week is the statement by the new Georgian government on the amendment of the law on "occupied territories." South Ossetia and Abkhazia have been recognized by Georgia "occupied territories" in response to Russia's recognition of the independence of these countries after the "five-day war" in August 2008. According to Georgian law, a visit to South Ossetia and Abkhazia which Georgia still considers to be its regions without the knowledge and permission of Tbilisi is a violation of the laws of the country and is punishable by a fine (1.2 thousand dollars.) or an imprisonment for up to four years. Under the new bill, the first visit to Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be punishable by an administrative fine of 400 lari (about $ 250). Criminal penalties will occur only for a repeatvisit to the republics. In addition, the Georgian government will have the right to issue official permits to visit Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the visit to which, in this case, will not be prosecuted. Of course, it's a half-hearted decision, but, of course, "the ice is broken," and it can be assumed that the amendments will be only the first step towards the complete abolition of "draconian law".
In Armenia, the presidential election was held and won by incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan. This victory was not a sensation for the experts, in contrast to a significant percentage of votes received by the leader of "Heritage" Raffi Hovannisian - the only serious opponent of the president of Armenia in the last election. Hovhannisyan scored about 15% more than the share of the vote, which was given to him in the forecasts, and it is a serious result that allowed the ex-minister to "put an ultimatum" to the current Armenian authorities and declare the numerous violations and fraud during the vote.
Armenian experts assessed the "Hovannisian phenomenon" differently. What is this? Are these protest votes accumulated by a leader of "Heritage" in the absence of Gagik Tsarukyan and Levon Ter-Petrosian? Or did Armenian voters suddenly imbue with love for the idea of European integration, which is a core part of Hovhannisyan's program? In our assessment, the first option seems more likely. Nevertheless, proving or disproving this claim with facts is hardly possible; in any case, the main opponent of Sargsyan got the trump cards - the right to publicly declare the "stolen victory".
Speaking at the rally organized by the opposition on February 22, Raffi Hovannisian said that Serzh Sargsyan was invited either to resign or to organize new elections, or to "punish" those responsible for electoral fraud, or to make the transition to a parliamentary form of government and to organize new elections. "The answer was "no". I have nothing more to say to the authorities", Hovhannisyan said.
At the same time, all the strong statements that were heard from the government and the opposition in the first post-election days leave the impression of certain theatricality, such as appeals addressed to Sargsyan - to "repent" and to "give up power." In any case, the role of "troublemaker" was performed brilliantly. Now anyone of the experts can hardly think of calling the elections dull and uninteresting. In Azerbaijan, the focus was on preparing for the anniversary of the tragic date - Khojaly events. Representatives of the Azerbaijani elite are getting tougher in evaluating the historical context of the event. All those involved in the tragedy in Khojaly, including Mikhail Gorbachev, should be brought to the international tribunal, Deputy Prime Minister Ali Hasanov said in his speech at the event at the Embassy of Turkey dedicated to the Khojaly events.
At the same time Baku expressed hope that the Turkish government and the Turkish Grand National Assembly will give due assessment to Khojaly genocide. According to the namesake of the Deputy Prime Minister, head of the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan Ali Hasanov, "given the fact that most of the countries called the Khojaly tragedy genocide ad gave adequate legal assessment to the crimes committed in Khojaly, Turkey will also be among those countries and give adequate legal assessment of Khojaly genocide ".
Certain matters in relation to Ankara arise for another reason. For instance, some Azerbaijani MPs stressed the "haste" of the congratulations by the President of Turkey Gul on the victory of Serzh Sargsyan in the presidential elections in Armenia.
It is unlikely that this had a considerable impact on the nature of the bilateral relationship, but at the same time, these "details" may indicate more serious steps by the Turkish government - first of all, in terms of resuming negotiations with Yerevan to open the borders.
